土地利用系统对区域可持续发展的支撑力评价：方法与实证

土地利用系统作为人类与自然界交互的关键载体,在区域可持续发展过程中占据重要地位。为分析其与联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）的关联特征,解释其对SDGs的支撑能力,构建土地利用系统内涵解析框架,探索其对SDGs的支撑机制并构建可持续发展支撑力评价体系,以山东省为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明：（1）以土地利用系统为核心,在人地关系视角下解析其与社会、经济、生态系统的交互作用,分析其在人地耦合系统中的运行机制,揭示其与可持续发展的相关关系,可为确定土地利用系统可持续发展目标提供理论解析。（2）山东省土地利用系统支撑力呈“省域西低东高、市域中心低周围高”分布,研究期内,66%的区域实现了支撑能力的提升,支撑力变化呈现“西北部提升、中部及东部下降”现象。具有农业优势的西部平原区对SDGs的直接支撑及自身稳定力提升,但间接支撑力有所下降,东部经济发达区自身稳定力有所提高,但直接及间接支撑力下降。（3）各类型支撑力变化空间相关性显著。显著区域多分布在市辖区,菏泽市农业发展能力的辐射带动作用较强,东营市土地经济产出及社会供应能力呈高—高集聚,土地自身稳定力呈低—低集聚。研究提出了土地利用系统支撑可持续发展的新视角,可为后续研究提供借鉴,实证分析为山东省可持续发展战略提供决策建议,为国土空间规划背景下的政策调控提供参考。

Evaluation of the support capacity of land use system on regional sustainable development:Methods and empirical evidence

Land use system, as the key carrier of human interaction with nature, plays an important part in the process of regional sustainable development. In order to analyze its relevance to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and explain its support capacity, this paper constructs the connotation analysis framework of land use system, explores its supporting mechanism for SDGs and establishes the support capacity evaluation system for sustainable development, taking Shandong Province as an example for empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) Taking the land use system as the core, in the perspective of the relationship between human and land and its interactions with society, economy, ecological system, we analyze its operational mechanism in the coupling system of person, reveal its correlation with sustainable development, to determine the land use system of SDGs to provide theoretical analysis. (2) The support capacity of the land use system in Shandong province is distributed as "low in the east, but high in the west of the province; while high around the low surroundings of the urban center". During the study period, 66% of the support capacity was improved, and the change of support capacity showed the phenomenon of "uplift in the northwest and decline in the central and eastern regions". The direct support and self-stability of SDGs in the western plains with agricultural advantages has decreased, while the indirect support capacity has decreased, and the self-stability of the eastern economically developed areas has improved, while the direct and indirect support capacity has decreased. (3) The spatial correlation of each type of support capacity is significant. The significant areas are mostly distributed in the municipal districts. The radiation-driven agricultural development capacity of Heze city is strong. The economic output and social supply capacity of Dongying city are high-high agglomeration, and the stability of the land itself is low-low agglomeration. The research puts forward a new perspective on the sustainable development of land use system, which can provide reference for follow-up research, and empirical analysis lays a foundation for development decision-making in Shandong, and provides suggestions for the policy regulation of national spatial planning.