青藏高原农牧业生态风险时空变化特征与分区防控

青藏高原地区是我国重要的生态安全屏障、战略资源储备基地,农牧业是青藏高原涵盖范围最广的产业,明晰其生态风险对实现青藏高原农牧业可持续发展具有重要意义。构建了青藏高原农牧业生态风险评价体系,并以216个县域为评价单元,分析1990—2015年农牧业开发综合生态风险的时空分布及其重心转移规律,并结合区域农牧业开发强度实现农牧业生态风险权衡分区。结果表明：（1）青藏高原综合生态风险总体有上升趋势,呈“东部多核聚集、西部零星散列”的分布格局。（2）风险重心向西北方向移动,风险主趋势方向转为西北—东南走向。（3）青藏高原限制开发区面积占比最大为50.84%,其次为发展预警区与自然恢复区,青藏高原整体农牧业开发强度较高,应在保障高原生态安全屏障功能的情况下减缓农牧业开发。针对区域特征提出农牧业发展方案,以期为青藏高原地区农牧业开发生态风险防范及发展规划提供科学指引。

Spatio-temporal variation of ecological risk of agriculture and animal husbandry on the Tibetan Plateau and its regional prevention and control

The Tibetan Plateau is an important ecological security shelter and strategic resource reserve base. Its ecological security is of great significance to China. Ecological and environmental risks of agriculture and animal husbandry production are core issues for sustainable development of the plateau. This paper established an ecological risk assessment system for agriculture and animal husbandry to analyze the ecological risks of agriculture and animal husbandry of the study area from 1990 to 2015. The spatio-temporal pattern of the ecological risks was explored. Then, the agriculture and animal husbandry ecological risk trade-off zones were identified in combination with the regional agriculture and animal husbandry development intensity. Results showed that: (1) The ecological risk presented an upward trend, showing a distribution pattern of "multi-core aggregation in the east and scattered hashing in the west". (2) The risk gravity shifted to the northwest. (3) The restricted development zone of the plateau accounts for the largest proportion of 50.84%, followed by restricted development zones and natural restoration zones. The overall agriculture and animal husbandry development intensity was relatively high. Thereby, the development of agriculture and animal husbandry should be slowed down to ensure the function of the ecological security barrier on the plateau. The results were expected to provide scientific guidance for ecological prevention and development planning of agriculture and animal husbandry on the Tibetan Plateau.