Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city |
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Authors: | Xiao-jun Wang Jian-yun Zhang Jiu-fu Liu Guo-qing Wang Rui-min He Amgad Elmahdi Sondoss Elsawah |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 210029 Nanjing, China;(2) Research Centre for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, 210029 Nanjing, China;(3) Urban Water Balance, Climate and Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3008, Australia;(4) Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management (iCAM), Australian National University, Canberra, Australia |
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Abstract: | Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent
pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional
management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions
and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often
lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach
that caters to the interdependent physical (e.g. water inflows, outflows) and behavioural (e.g. decision rules, perceptions)
processes in the system. Unlike reductionist approaches, System Dynamics (SD) takes a system-level view for modelling and
analysing the complex structure (cause–effect relationships, feedback loops, delays) that generates the systemic behaviour.
Simulating the SD model allows assessing long-term system-wide impacts, exploring leverage points and communicating results
to decision makers. In this paper, we follow an SD modelling approach to examine the future of water security in Yulin City.
First, we present a conceptual model for integrating water supply and demand. Based on this, we build an SD model to simulate
and analyse the dynamics of water resource over time. The model output is tested to ensure that it satisfactorily replicates
the historical behaviour of the system. The model is used to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various supply/demand
management options. Three scenarios are designed and examined: business-as-usual, supply management, and demand management.
Results show that current management regime cannot effectively meet the future water demand. Whereas supply acquisition provides
short-term benefits, it cannot cope with the growing population. A combination of conservation measures and demand-management
instruments is regarded the most effective strategy for balancing supply and demand. |
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