西南地区覆冰气象要素的变化特征及综合评估

论文采用西南地区(95°~110°E,25°~35°N)96个常规气象观测站1961年1月1日至2009年12月31日逐日气象要素资料,应用模糊信息分配方法对西南地区形成覆冰的主要气象要素配置进行研究。以连续覆冰日数为主,建立了该地区满足气象条件的覆冰综合评估指数。结果表明,当同时满足地面日最低气温在-10~1 ℃,相对湿度≥80%,日照时数≤2 h这3个条件时,最易发生电线覆冰现象。我国西南地区的云南、贵州、四川三省交界处以及云贵高原大部为电线覆冰最为严重的地方,且覆冰灾害有非常显著的年际及年代际变化规律。

Variations of Metorological Factors Concerning Icing and Comprehensive Assessment in Southwest China

The configuration of main meteorological elements was studied based on fuzzy information distribution method of probability by using daily meteorological elements data for the period of 1960-2009 from 96 stations in Southwest China, to the number of icing consecutive days mainly constructing icing comprehensive evaluation index. The results show that when satisfying the conditions that daily minimum temperature in the context of -10 ℃ and 1 ℃, relative humidity greater than or egual to 80%, sunshine duration less than or equal to 2 hours at the same time, the probability of formation icing will increase. The most severe icing area is at the border of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. There is obvious interdecadal variability in annual icing intensity in Southwest China.