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| 基于MIKESHE模型的潮河流域土地利用与降水变化对水文的影响评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 王盛萍,张志强,Ge Sun,Peter Strauss,郭军庭,姚安坤,唐寅.基于MIKESHE模型的潮河流域土地利用与降水变化对水文的影响评价[J].生态与农村环境学报,2012,28(3):320-325. |
| 作者姓名： | 王盛萍 张志强 Ge Sun Peter Strauss 郭军庭 姚安坤 唐寅 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学资源与环境研究院,区域能源环境系统优化教育部重点实验室,北京102206 2. 北京林业大学水土保持学院,水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点实验室,北京 100083 3. Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station,USDA Forest Service, Raleigh NC 27606,USA 4. Federal Agency for Water Management, Institute for Land and Water Management Research, Pollnbergstrasse 1, A - 3252 Petzenkirchen, Austria |
| 基金项目： | 林业公益性行业科研专项，国际科技合作项目 |
| 摘 要： | 运用多测站校正检验机制率定方法,应用MIKESHE模型量化评价土地利用与降水变化对流域水文的影响。结果表明,尽管MIKESHE模型在流域上游大阁站的模拟性能稍逊于下会站和戴营站,3个测站校正和验证阶段的Nash-sutchliffe系数值分别为0.56和0.49、0.65和0.69、0.57和0.68,但模型对于各测站平均径流的模拟效果较好,说明该模型在潮河流域等华北土石山区具有一定的适用性和应用潜力。与基准期(1963—1979年)相比,1980—1989年潮河流域年径流量减少约22 mm,土地利用与降水变化对流域水文变化的贡献相当,两者分别占总径流变化的59%和41%;1990—1999年年径流量较基准期基本没有变化,这主要是由于降水变化与土地利用变化对流域水文的影响作用相反;2000—2008年,流域年径流量较基准期减少35 mm,降水变化对径流减少的影响作用占80%,土地利用变化则占20%。 |
| 关 键 词： | MIKESHE模型 土地利用变化 降水变化 水文影响 潮河流域 |
Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Precipitation in Chaohe Watershed Using MIKESHE Model |
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| WANG Sheng-ping , ZHANG Zhi-qiang , Ge Sun , Peter Strauss , GUO Jun-ting , YAO An-kun , TANG Yin.Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Precipitation in Chaohe Watershed Using MIKESHE Model[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2012,28(3):320-325. | |
| Authors: | WANG Sheng-ping ZHANG Zhi-qiang Ge Sun Peter Strauss GUO Jun-ting YAO An-kun TANG Yin |
| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization of Ministry of Education/ Resources and Environmental Research Academy,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;2.Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating of Ministry of Education/ College of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;3.Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center,Southern Research Station,USDA Forest Service,Raleigh NC 27606,USA;4.Federal Agency for Water Management,Institute for Land and Water Management Research,Pollnbergstrasse 1,A-3252 Petzenkirchen,Austria) |
| Abstract: | In order to test applicability of the MIKESHE model in the Chaohe watershed,and to examine impacts of the changes on decadal runoff of the Chaohe River over the past 45 years,the MIKESHE model was applied to the research in the Chaohe watershed.After calibrating the model with a multi-site calibration procedure,hydrological impacts of changes in land use and precipitation were disentangled by running scenario simulations.Results show that the model was generally good at simulating the average runoff and the dynamic variation of the runoff in the watershed,although the modeling performance was less satisfactory in the Dage Station than in the Xiahui and Daiying Stations,with Nash-sutchliffe coefficient for the three stations being 0.56 and 0.49,0.65 and 0.69,and 0.57 and 0.68 for the calibration and validation periods,respectively.Compared with the reference period(1963 to 1979),the period from 1980 to 1989 witnessed a sharp decrease,ca 22 mm,in annual runoff in the watershed,to which changes in land use and precipitation contributed almost equally,accounting for 59% and 41%,respectively.The period from 1990 to 1999 did not see much change in annual runoff as compared with the reference period,which was owing to the hydrological impact of the change in precipitation being offset by that of the change in land use during this period.And the period from 2000 to 2008 had its annual runoff cut by 35 mm,of which 80% was attributed to the change in precipitation and 20% to that in land use. |
| Keywords: | MIKESHE model land use change precipitation variation hydrological impact Chaohe watershed |
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