高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价研究

为研究河南高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价问题,首先分析了高山镇赤泥尾矿库特征和现阶段运行情况以及可能存在的溃坝风险因素,并确认该尾矿库是重大危险源;然后对汛期溃坝事故进行了故障树分析,在此基础上,建立了高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定了各个评价指标的权重,运用多层模糊模式识别理论综合评价了高山镇赤泥尾矿库的溃坝风险等级。研究结果表明:赤泥尾矿库属于Ⅱ等库,存在轻微病害,基本具备安全运行条件,但应加强库区和坝体的日常管理和维护;汛期应采取有效的排洪措施及时降低赤泥库水位;建立了高山镇赤泥尾矿库环境应急管理体系,对尾矿库的风险预测和预防以及突发事故的应急行动有很强的指导作用,也可以结合GIS进行更高效的风险管理。

RESEARCH ON DAM-BREAK RISK ASSESSMENT OF RED MUD TAILING RESERVOIR IN GAOSHAN TOWN

In order to study the dam-break risk assessment problem of red mud tailing reservoir in Gaoshan Town of Henan Province,first it was analyzed the features of red mud tailing reservoir in Gaoshan Town,the operational aspect and the possible dam-break risk factors,and the tailing reservoir is the major hazard installations;Based on the FTA of dam-break during flood season,it was built the dam-break risk assessment index system of red mud tailing reservoir in Gaoshan Town,and took the AHP to determine the weight of each evaluating indicator,then multi-fuzzy model recognition theory was used to overall evaluate the risk grade of the red mud tailing reservoir in Gaoshan Town.The results of study showed that red mud tailing reservoir is second-class and have mild disease problems,basically had the safe run conditions,but the current management and safeguard of the reservoir area and dam should be strengthened;effective measures should be taken to drain off floodwaters to lower the water level of red mud reservoir;it was built the environmental emergency management system of red mud tailing reservoir in Gaoshan Town,and it had a strong role in directive function of the tailing’s risk prediction as well as prevention of emergency incidents,it also can use GIS to do more efficient risk management.