工业园区规划环境影响评价中的环境承载力方法研究

环境承载力是区域规划环境影响评价的重要依据,可为区域发展适度规模提供环境支撑依据.针对工业园区生态环境特征,以珠海富山工业园为案例建立环境承载力评价指标体系,并结合该指标开发基于熵值法的工业园区环境承载力动态评价模型,模拟珠海富山工业园区规划情景下的环境承载力变化.结果表明,工业园区环境承载力于规划中后期处于下降趋势,但下降的趋势较为缓和；园区发展压力伴随着园区规划建设处于下降趋势,规划建设初期的下降趋势最为明显.通过灰色关联度分析发现,规划期园区经济社会发展始终处于园区资源环境的可承载范围,随着园区进一步发展、科学技术水平提高和基础设施完善,园区综合环境承载力可提升至较为稳定的水平.

Evaluation of environment carrying capacity on development planning of an industrial park

Environmental carrying capacity (ECC) is an important environmental indicator for regional planning. In this paper, a new evaluation index system was proposed to assess the ECC of Fushan industrial park in Zhuhai city. Entropy theory was incorporated into evaluation index system to develop a dynamic system model to simulate the variation of ECC of the industrial park in the planning period. The results indicated that the ECC was gently descending since middle-lasting period of planning. At the same time, the environment pressure would also descend during the whole planning period. Therefore, we could conclude that the developing scale of the industrial park did exceede the ECC according to the integrated gray evaluation. Along with the improvement of the technology level of each industry in the park, the status of integrated ECC of industrial park could be elevated into a stable level.