库存弹药事故人误危险性分析与评估模型研究

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,提出库存弹药事故人为失误的定义,并从个体角度分析人误事件发生的机理。根据人为失误的不同主体,从管理决策、组织和勤务处理、操作两个方面构建了29个人误危险性的评价指标及相应的评判标准;综合考虑生理、心理、知识与技能、设备、环境、监督与管理等6类危险性抵消因子对人误危险性的影响;进而建立了库存弹药事故人误危险性的理论评估模型。研究结果表明:人为失误属于弹药仓储安全管理中的一类特殊危险源,人误评估指标体系和评估模型的构建过程应充分考虑人自身条件以及内、外部环境等因素的综合影响;同时研讨了人为失误危险性分析和评估模型存在的问题,并从发展人误数据采集技术、完善人误事故报告制度以及建立人误数据库等方面,指出下一步的研究重点。

Research on Human Error Analysis and Assessment Model of Stock Ammunition Accidents

Aimed at the particularity of stock ammunition safety,the definition of human error in stock ammunition accident is put forward,and the occurring mechanism of human error is analyzed from the stand of individuals.According to different main bodies of human error,29 evaluating indexes and judging standard of human error are established from two aspects of management organization and decision,and duty disposal and operation.Considering the influence of 6 hazardous counteraction factors on human errors such as physiology,psychology,knowledge and technology,equipment,environment,supervision and management,the assessment mathematics model for human error hazard in stock ammunition risk is established.Analysis result shows that human error is a special hazard source of stock ammunition safety management,and the integrated influence of human self,inside and outside environment should be considered during the establishment of assessment index system and model.Finally,the problems and difficulties in human error research are discussed,and the research emphases in future are pointed out from the technique of human error data collection,human error accident report and human error database.