| 洪泽湖藻类与环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华初步预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王兆群,张宁红,张咏. 洪泽湖藻类与环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华初步预测[J]. 中国环境监测, 2012, 28(4): 17-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王兆群 张宁红 张咏 |
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| 作者单位： | 淮安市环境监测中心站, 江苏 淮安 223001;江苏省环境监测中心, 江苏 南京 210036;江苏省环境监测中心, 江苏 南京 210036 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省环境监测科技基金项目(0908) |
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| 摘 要： | 以洪泽湖2008—2010年的连续监测资料为基础,运用多元逐步回归统计方法,选择水温等12项环境因子与藻类叶绿素a等5项生物因子进行逐步回归分析,找出与生物因子显著相关的因子,建立多元逐步回归方程,预测洪泽湖藻类密度的变化情况,初步进行了洪泽湖蓝藻水华的预测预报。结果显示,总磷、总氮、氨氮和水深为洪泽湖藻类密度的显著相关因子,透明度、水温、水深为蓝藻密度的显著相关因子。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪泽湖 多元逐步回归 蓝藻 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-01-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-11-21 |
Prediction of Blue-Green Algae Bloom Using Stepwise Multiple Regression Between Algae & Related Environmental Factors in Hongze lake |
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| WANG Zhao-qun,ZHANG Ning-hong and ZHANG Yong. Prediction of Blue-Green Algae Bloom Using Stepwise Multiple Regression Between Algae & Related Environmental Factors in Hongze lake[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2012, 28(4): 17-20 |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhao-qun ZHANG Ning-hong ZHANG Yong |
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| Affiliation: | HuaiAn Envionmental Monitoring Central Station, Huai'an 223001, China;Jangsu Envionmental Monitoring Center, Nanjing 210036, China;Jangsu Envionmental Monitoring Center, Nanjing 210036, China |
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| Abstract: | This study deals with the ralation between algal biomass and 12 environmental factors such as weter temperature(WT),suspend solids(SS),DO,COD,etc,based on the mongitoring data from 2008-2010 in Hongze lake.the stepwise multiple regression statistical method was used to calculate the relation between algalchlorophyll-a(Chla), total algal density, Blue-green algae density, etc,and these environmental factors.The results showed that D,TP,TN and NH3-N were the most significant related factors to algae density, WT,SD,D were the most significant related factors to blue-green algae density.These can be used to predict the Blue-green algae bloom in the Hongze lake. |
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| Keywords: | Hongze lake Stepwise multiple regression Blue-Green algae Prediction |
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