雷击引燃森林可燃物概率的实验研究

利用自主设计的雷击点燃森林可燃物的模拟实验装置,采用大兴安岭地区的松针和白草作为实验材料进行了雷击点燃实验。通过Logistic回归分析得到雷击点燃概率方程,并且通过主成分分析发现可燃物含水率和设备的低压值是决定可燃物是否被点燃的主要因素。通过不同可燃物含水率和电极间距参数条件下的实验证明了Lo-gistic回归方程结果的合理性,并对电极间距改变范围对实验的局限性进行了分析。

Experimental study on the probability of lightning induced ignition of forest fuels

In this work, a new equipment was used to simulate the ignition of forest fuels induced by lightning. The samples of pine litter and white grass collected from Daxing＇anling region were used for experiments. Based on the data obtained in this work, a probability correlation was summarized by logistic regression analysis. Principal component analysis was also used to extract the major factors for ignition. The results showed that moisture and electrode spacing may greatly affect the probability of ignition. The reasonability of the logistic regression analysis was verified by experiments of whch the moisture and electrode spacing were varied independently. Additionally, the limitation of the varying range of the electrode spacing used in this work was discussed.