汾河流域水资源承载力评估及生态敏感性分析

汾河流域是山西省重要的水资源供给区，是促进山西省区域协调发展的重要区域，汾河流域高质量发展的关键在于汾河生态环境保护与社会经济协调发展。利用DPSIR-TOPSIS模型对汾河流域水资源承载力进行分析，结果表明，2012—2021年汾河流域的水资源承载力水平实现了阶段性增长，高质量经济发展水平和高水平水资源保护的协同推进促成了水资源承载力的整体平稳上升。基于层次分析法和空间分析法的生态敏感性分析结果表明，轻、中、高敏感区占汾河流域的79.51%，极敏感区占区域的14.45%，植被覆盖度是影响区域生态敏感性的重要考量。本研究对汾河流域水资源承载力和生态敏感性的时空变化进行了综合评估，为汾河流域高质量发展路径设计提供科学依据。

Carrying capacity of water resources assessment and ecological sensitivity analysis in Fen River Basin

The Fen River Basin, nestled within the embrace of Shanxi Province, is a vital source of life-giving waters, bestowing its precious gift upon both the land and its inhabitants. This hallowed basin assumes a pivotal role in nurturing the harmonious growth of Shanxi, intricately weaving the fabric of regional development. The key to the Fen River Basin's high-quality evolution lies in the delicate dance between safeguarding its ecological sanctity and nurturing the symbiotic bond between society and economy. This study employed the DPSIR-TOPSIS model to scrutinize the water resource carrying capacity of the Fen River Basin. The findings revealed that from 2012 to 2021, the basin's water resource carrying capacity had experienced phased growth. This uplifting trajectory was a testament to the synergistic progress of robust economic development and diligent water resource preservation, resulting in the overall stability and ascent of its carrying capacity. Furthermore, the ecological sensitivity analysis, grounded in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and spatial techniques, had unveiled that 79.51% of the basin exhibits varying degrees of sensitivity, with 14.45% being in the highly sensitive category. The extent of vegetation cover had emerged as a critical factor influencing regional ecological sensitivity. In essence, this comprehensive assessment of the Fen River Basin's water resource capacity and ecological sensitivity, over time and space, had laid a scientific foundation for designing a path towards high-quality development in the basin.