Logistic和Gompertz曲线及其最优组合模型在沉降预测中的运用

堆载预压法处理的软土地基沉降变化规律与Logistic和Gompertz曲线的变化规律极为相似,有着明显的出生、成长和成熟的过程。通过对Logistic和Gompertz曲线参数的合理取值,能够较好地拟合S—t曲线,预估最终沉降量。同时,以平均绝对百分误差最小为目标,建立了组合预测模型,拟合结果显示,该组合模型对于S—t曲线的拟合,比Logistic和Gompertz曲线更具优越性。

Application of Logistic and Gompertz Curves and Optimum Combined Model to Settlement Prediction

The settlement of soft-soil foundation reinforced by pre-loading is similar to the Logistic and Gompertz curves with obvious intervals of initiating, growing and maturing. By selecting appropriate values of parameters for the two curves, the two models are established to fit the S-t curve based on the monitoring data of settlement during construction, and the total settlement value is predicted accurately by using those two curves. For obtaining the least MAPE, a combined prediction model is established, which is obviously superior to the Logistic and Gompertz curves by comparing their prediction results with the realistic values.