湖北省降水分区研究

利用湖北省19个国家级气象台站1956~2009年逐月降水资料，采用分层聚类方法，基于聚类分析碎石图和聚类树状图来探索最适宜的分区方案，对湖北省全年、逐月降水进行了分区，并结合西太平洋副热带高压的移动探讨了分区的合理性，之后逐区进行了自相关分析和趋势分析。结果表明：湖北省全年降水分区为5区，1~12月降水分区分别为3、3、4、3、5、4、3、3、3、4、3、3个区。各月降水分区的差异性与西太平洋副热带高压的南北移动有密切关系，副高脊线在北纬18°以南、北纬20°以北，以及缓慢南退过程中，分区形式有较大差异。自相关分析以及趋势分析结果表明单一气象站不能代表所在分区的气候特点，而所在分区又不能代表湖北省的气候特点，基于不同目的，进行分区和综合，将有助于研究特定区域的气候特点

RESEARCH ON PRECIPITATION REGIONALIZATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE

Based on monthly precipitation data from 1956 to 2009 that gathered from 19 key meteorological stations in Hubei province,the classification of annual and monthly precipitation were carried out by hierarchical clustering analysis,in which the optimal numbers of clusters were yielded according to the scree plots and dendrograms of cluster analysis.And then the rationality of the classification by compared them with the moves of the western pacific subtropical high was discussed.Subsequently,the autocorrelation and linear trend of precipitation in each region were explored by autocorrelation analysis and trend analysis.The results showed that the optimal number of cluster for annual and monthly precipitation in Hubei province were 5,3,3,4,3,5,4,3,3,3,4,3,3,respectively.There were close relationship between monthly classification of precipitation and the moves of the western pacific subtropical high.And there were more different partition pattern when ridge line of the subtropical high was at the south of latitude 18°N,at the north of latitude 20°N and slowly back to south.Autocorrelation analysis and trend analysis showed that a single meteorological station could not represent the climatic characteristics of the partition,and the partition could not represent the climatic characteristics of Hubei province.It will help to study specific regional climatic characteristics by partition and integrate based on different purposes.