土地利用变化中农户脆弱性研究——一个理论分析框架及基于中国中部五省的调研实证

农村土地流转是发生在我国农村的重要社会经济现象,既关系到土地供给的总体结构与变化,也关系到城市化和工业化的进程,更关系到农户的生存状况。论文在分析当前农户脆弱性研究进展的基础上提出了一种土地利用变化中农户脆弱性理论分析框架,该分析框架包括暴露性指数EI、敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI。根据量化后的SI和AI,可以计算出农户的脆弱性指数VI。论文以中国中部经济区5个省份：河南、湖北、湖南、江西和安徽作为案例研究区域,在大规模农户调研的基础上,选取了定量测度敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI的指标体系,运用几何平均数算法对其进行量化,并由此分别计算出各省份农地转入户和转出户的脆弱性指数VI。最后,论文将农户脆弱性指数VI与暴露性指数（流转面积强度EI_A和流转时间强度EI_T）的关系进行了分析。

Farmers’ Vulnerability in Farmland Conversion:Analytical Framework and Empirical Research on Five Provinces in Central China

Farmland conversion is a commonly economic and social phenomenon in China’s rural areas. It is not only related to the overall structure and the change in land supply, but also related to the process of urbanization and industrialization, as well as farmers’ living condition. In order to reduce the risk caused by land use change and to improve farmers’ adaptive ability, scientific assessment of farmers’ vulnerability after land conversion is very necessary. This paper presents a theoretical framework for farmers’ vulnerability assessment and sets up a related index system including exposure index (EI), sensitivity index (SI) and adaptive ability index (AI). According to the quantized SI and AI, farmers’ vulnerability indexes can be calculated. Taking the five provinces—Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui, which are located in the central economic zone of China, as case study areas, this paper measures the vulnerability indexes of farmers who have farmland transferred in and out respectively based on a large scale survey. Then, the relationships between the vulnerability index (VI) and exposure index including area-based exposure index (EI_A) and time-based exposure index (EI_T) are analyzed sequentially. The study finds that: 1) the vulnerability indexes of farmers who have farmland transferred in are always lower than those of farmers who have farmland transferred out in the same province after farmland conversion, which indicates that compared with transferred out land, transferred in land has lower risks or farmers with farmland transferred in have stronger adaptive abilities; 2) the relationship between the vulnerability index and area-based exposure index of farmers with farmland transferred in (VI-EI_A) presents a “U” shape, while that of farmers with farmland transferred out is opposite, which presents a “inverted U” shape; 3) the relationships between the vulnerability index of farmers with farmland transferred in and out and time-based exposure index (VI-EI_A) are same, which are all positive correlated. The results show that the government should improve the agricultural income of farmers with farmland transferred in and provide surplus rural labor forces more opportunities in urban for reducing farmers’ vulnerability. Only in this way can their adaptive ability be enhanced to resist the risks caused by land use change.