土地供应计划对房价的传导机制研究

论文在借鉴四象限模型的基础上从理论上剖析了土地供应计划对房价的传导机制,并通过构建住房市场的存量-流量模型,利用湖南省2010-2013年14个市（州）的市本级面板数据,实证检验了土地供应计划对房价的传导机制。研究结果表明：土地供应计划的实施影响开发商预期,预期效应引致开发商的投机行为,进而对房价产生显著负影响,保障性住房用地占住宅用地的比例及供地计划实施率对房价产生显著负影响且影响强度不同,土地供应计划供地结构对房价的贡献大于计划实施率,该结论可为相关部门制定科学可行的供地计划提供重要决策参考。从单个因素分析,开发商的预期效应对房价波动的影响大于消费者预期效应对房价的影响;综合各需求面和供给面的因素分析,需求面因素对房价的影响程度大于供给面因素对房价的影响程度;上一期住房存量的增加进一步推动了房价的上涨。

The Transmission Mechanism of Land Supply Planning on Housing Prices

With the rapid development of real estate market, the continued increasing housing price has become the focus of national macro-control. To stabilize the fast increasing housing prices, State Council stated a series of policies and measures which covers all aspects of land, finance and banking. In 2010, Ministry of Land and Resources issued a trial notice, state-owned construction land supply planning norms, guiding relevant departments to prepare for the land supply planning. Since then, the land supply planning has become an important tool of land supply policy to regulate and control the housing prices. The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelation between land supply planning and housing prices, and the transmission mechanism of land supply planning on housing prices.In this paper, we use four-quadrant model which was firstly built by Denise Dipasquale and William C. Wheaton, and introduce a series of relevant variables such as the amount of land, the price of land, the housing stock, and so on. With the modified four-quadrant model, we analyze how land supply planning affects housing prices by conducting intermediate variables. Through theoretical analysis, the land supply structure and completion rate are two factors on housing prices. On the basis of theoretical analysis, we employ the proportion of affordable housing land to residential land and the actual land supply to the plan land supply to represent the land supply planning. In this paper, we use the panel data of 14 cities in Hunan Province from year 2010 to 2013. We also construct a stock-flow model in housing market to investigate the transmission mechanism of the land supply planning on housing prices. It turns out that the implementation of land supply planning affected the expectation of property developers which induced their speculative behaviors, and thus had a significant negative impact on housing prices. Seen from the regression result, the proportion of residential land use for indemnificatory housing and the implementation rate of the land supply plan both have significant negative effects on housing price while in different intensities. The effect of the land supply structure is greater than that of implementation rate of the plan. The smaller the proportion of land for indemnificatory housing or the higher implementation rate of the plan is, the faster housing price drops. This conclusion can provide important decision making reference for relevant departments to make scientific and feasible plan. The result shows that the expectation of developers has greater effect than the expectation of consumers, so it’s critical to take measures to regulate developer’s behavior. The study also shows that demand factors exert greater influence on housing prices than supply factors, especially per capita disposable income. Demand factors are the main factors that affect housing prices. And the housing stock of last year pushes the housing prices higher. This conclusion is different from Peng and Wheaton’s, which exactly reflects the contradiction of current vacant housing stock and increasing new housing supply.