四川盆地极端暴雨水汽输送特征分析

论文利用1961—2015年四川盆地104个国家气象站资料和同期NCEP资料,筛选四川盆地极端暴雨过程并进行分型,引入拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型（HYSPLIT 4）,定量分析了不同类型极端暴雨过程850 hPa和700 hPa上的水汽输送特征。结果表明：1）四川盆地全盆移动型和盆西型极端暴雨不同层次上的水汽输送轨迹有所不同。850 hPa上全盆移动型水汽输送轨迹主要有4条,而盆西型主要有5条;700 hPa上全盆移动型和盆西型水汽轨迹都主要有3条。2）不同后向追踪时间,两类极端暴雨过程850 hPa的水汽来源大值区有所不同。后向追踪1 d,两类极端暴雨过程的水汽来源大值区都出现在西南地区东部;后向追踪3 d,全盆移动型的水汽大值区出现在两广交界处以及北部湾附近,而盆西型的水汽大值区出现在湖北西部至两广交界处以及印度半岛北部;后向追踪9 d,两类极端暴雨过程相同的水汽来源大值区为斯里兰卡岛附近的印度洋洋面,此外,全盆移动型的另一个大值区为菲律宾岛附近的太平洋洋面,盆西型的另一个大值区为中南半岛东部沿海。3）追踪到不同类型极端暴雨过程不同层次上的水汽源地,并定量分析了不同水汽源地的贡献率。850 hPa上全盆移动型主要水汽源地有3个：阿拉伯海-孟加拉湾地区、西太平洋、东亚大陆及临海。盆西型主要水汽源地也有3个：南海、孟加拉湾、中国东部及沿海;700 hPa上全盆移动型水汽源地有3个：阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾-南海、东海。盆西型主要水汽源地有2个：孟加拉湾和南海。

The Water Vapor Transportation Characteristics of the Extreme Severe Rain Events in Sichuan Basin

Using the data of 1961-2015 from 104 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data, the extreme severe rain events are selected and divided into two types with the HYSPLIT 4 model: extreme severe rain events moving in the whole basin and in the west basin. The storm water vapor transportation of different types at 850 and 700 hPa are analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the water vapor transportation paths are different between different types and different levels. At 850 hPa level, there are four moisture transport paths of the type moving in the whole basin, and there are five paths of the type in the west basin. At 700 hPa level, there are three moisture transport paths of both the types moving in the whole basin and in the west basin. The maximum water vapor areas at different backward tracking times are different. The contribution rates from different sources to water vapor transport are also different. For the type moving in the whole basin, the water vapor comes from the Arabian Sea-Bay of Bengal contributes the most (59.5%) at 850 hPa, followed by the West Pacific (32.7%), while East Asia and Coastal Waters contributes a little (7.8%). For the type in the west basin, at 850 hPa the water vapor comes from the South China Sea (45.1%) is the most important, followed by the ones from Bay of Bengal (32.5%) and from the Eastern China and Coastal Waters (22.1%). At 700 hPa, the water vapor comes from the Arabian Sea contributes the most (55.1%) to the type moving in the whole basin, followed by the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea (39.1%), and East Asia contributes a little (5.8%). At 700 hPa, the water vapor comes from the Bay of Bengal (68.8%) is the most important to the type in the west basin, the water vapor from South China Sea is the second (30.4%), and the water vapor from Caspian Sea is 0.8%.