基于空间决策的区域城镇发展与农业生产协调布局优化——以江西省临川区为例

科学地进行城镇发展空间与农业生产空间的划分,是解决城市无序发展问题和粮食安全问题的重要途径。本文以江西省临川区为例,借助ArcGIS、GeoDa等软件,对临川区耕地综合质量及其自相关关系进行评价,以此确定永久基本农田初步划定成果,采用多准则判断CA模型对城市扩张进行模拟,通过两方面结果的对比与调整,结合城市发展方向、发展模式和耕地国家利用等别,进行永久基本农田和城市开发边界的划定。结果表明：永久基本农田划定面积为593.46 km²,初步划定结果主要分布于上顿渡镇、崇岗镇、河埠乡和荣山镇等耕地综合质量较高,且多为高—高聚集的区域。经过城市扩张模拟结果可知,临川区城市建设用地面积较为显著增加,主要增加面积分布于展坪乡、上顿渡镇以及钟岭街道。城市发展方向和城市扩张模型分析结果显示,临川区城市建设用地主要向西北、东南、西南方向扩张,扩张类型主要为蔓延式扩展。根据耕地国家利用等别将初步划定永久基本农田区分为可调入区与可调出区,从而进行永久基本农田区与城市开发边界的优化与协调,形成永久基本农田区与城市开发边界的最终成果。研究结果可为保护耕地资源、避免城市的无序扩张提供参考,也可为今后的划定工作提供借鉴。

Layout optimization of regional urban development and agricultural production based on spatial decision-making: A case study of Linchuan district in Jiangxi province

Scientific division of urban development space and agricultural production space is an important way to solve the problems of unregulated urban development and food security. Taking Linchuan district in Jiangxi province as an example, this paper uses ArcGIS, GeoDa software and others to establish a preliminary demarcation of the permanent basic farmland based on the comprehensive quality and autocorrelation of cultivated land in Linchuan district, and uses a multi-criterion CA model to simulate urban expansion. Through the comparison and adjustment of the results of the two aspects, combined with the direction of urban development, urban development model and the farmland natural utility grade, the demarcation of the boundary between the permanent basic farmland and the urban development will be carried out. The results showed that the demarcated area of permanent basic farmland was 593.46 km². The preliminary delimitation results were mainly distributed in Shangdundu town, Chonggang town, Hejian town, Rongshan town, etc. The comprehensive quality of cultivated land was high, and most of it was high-high gathered area. According to the results of urban expansion simulations, the area of urban construction land in Linchuan district has increased significantly, and the area mainly increased in Zhanping township, Shangdundu town, and Zhongling street. The results of urban development direction analysis and urban expansion model analysis show that the urban construction land in Linchuan district mainly expands to the northwest, southeast, and southwest, and the expansion type is mainly a spreading one. According to the farmland natural utility grade, the initially demarcated permanent basic farmland is divided into an adjustable-in area and an adjustable-out area, so that the optimization and coordination of the permanent basic farmland area and the urban development boundary are carried out, and the final results are obtained between the permanent basic farmland area and the urban development boundary. It is predicted that the boundary area of urban development will reach 142.59 km² by 2030, with a difference of 4.21 km² out of a total of preliminary delineation of permanent basic farmland area. The research results can provide reference for the protection of cultivated land resources and avoid the disorderly expansion of cities, and can also provide reference for the future delineation work.