中国大豆压榨企业空间格局及其演变机制

随着中国居民生活水平的不断提高,国内肉蛋奶的消费需求逐年增长,致使作为主要饲料蛋白原料的豆粕需求也不断增加。而豆粕是大豆压榨行业的主要产品,因此,大豆生产、大豆压榨、饲料生产和畜禽养殖组成了一个密切关联的产业系统,大豆原料生产与供给区分布、饲料生产和畜禽养殖业布局又会对大豆压榨行业空间格局的形成产生重要影响。以大豆压榨企业为研究对象,通过产业链视角,运用平均最近邻分析、核密度分析方法,研究了1996-2016年间中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局演变规律与集聚特征,然后构建了条件Logit模型探讨影响中国大豆压榨企业区位选择的主要因素。结果表明：中国大豆压榨企业空间集聚程度较高,自1996年以来,经历了从大豆主产区向沿海港口城市集聚再沿长江、哈大铁路、陇海铁路等交通运输线路扩散的演化特点。各地原料资源禀赋、运费成本、市场规模与潜力、集聚经济以及政府政策都会不同程度地影响中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局,并且不同时期影响大豆压榨企业空间格局的因素显著性及强度都会有所变化。2000-2005年原料资源禀赋、运输成本、豆粕市场规模以及集聚经济发挥着较大作用;2006-2010年间集聚经济和政府政策共同主导了大豆压榨企业的区位决策;2010年以后市场潜力与集聚不经济则表现出更强的作用。

Spatial pattern and evolution mechanism of China's soybean processing plants

With the improvement of the living standards of Chinese residents, the domestic demand for meat, eggs and milk has increased year by year. As the main food protein, soybean meal is the main product of the soybean processing industry. As an important part of the soybean industry chain, the soybean processing industry has influence on the distribution of soybean production, feed, and animal husbandry. This paper chooses the soybean processing plants from 1996 to 2016 as the study object. We explore the spatial pattern of China's soybean processing plants by using the average nearest neighbor analysis and nuclear density analysis method. Then we analyze the factors that influence the layout of soybean processing plants in different periods using the conditional Logit regression model. The results show that since 1996, the layout areas of China's processing plants have shifted from the main soybean producing areas to the coastal ports to soybean market area. Up to now, a belt-like pattern has formed, which takes the coastal port cities as the core, and the Yangtze River, Harbin-Dalian Railway and Longhai Railway as diffusion paths. Raw material supply, transportation cost, market size and potential, agglomeration and policy are all important factors which affect the spatial pattern of soybean processing plants and the main factors are different in different periods. Raw material supply, transportation cost, market size and agglomeration have the most important influence on the layout decisions of soybean processing plants from 2000 to 2015. But the agglomeration and policy were the dominant factors from 2006 to 2010 and it turned into market potential after 2010. The change of distribution of raw materials and soybean meal market lead to the change of transportation cost. The cost and expansion of soybean meal market attracted plants agglomeration from domestic soybean producing areas to the coastal port areas. With the agglomeration in the coastal ports, the increased competition among enterprises promoted the diffusion of enterprises from coastal port areas to soybean meal consumption areas.