不同生态位城市用地扩张和经济发展的互动关系研究——以广东省为例

城市化过程往往具有阶段性,不同用地规模、等级或区域的城市用地扩张,具有不同的阶段性,它们与连续性经济发展之间的互动关系有显著的差别。论文以广东省21个地级及以上城市为研究对象,根据研究对象1995—2010年生态位值的变化情况,将21个城市分为4个等级,结合4种方法从不同角度对不同等级城市用地扩张和经济发展之间的关系进行研究。结果表明,研究城市扩张和经济发展关系的方法应该基于完全市场化的基本假设,而且需要应用多种方法从不同角度进行综合诊断。生态位的方法能够恰当地区分城市扩张与经济发展关系的级别,不同生态位的城市用地扩张和经济发展具有不同的关联机制。大部分高生态城市用地扩张和经济发展符合库兹涅茨曲线关系,并能用Logistic蒂模型拟合,两者之间长期均衡关系也较显著,高生态位城市以弱脱钩状态为主。高生态位城市占有较大的空间和较多的资源,市场化水平也较高,城市扩张与经济发展关系密切。大部分低生态位城市不满足库兹涅茨曲线关系,少数城市能用Logistic蒂模型拟合,两者之间长期均衡关系也不显著,低生态位城市以强脱钩状态为主。低生态位城市所占有的空间和资源都比较少,市场化水平也较低,尽管城市扩张与经济发展也有一定的关系,但表现不明显。就目前而言,大部分城市规模已接近城市扩张的上限,高生态位城市应利用管理和技术等手段,不断提高资源利用效率和集约化水平,推动经济可持续发展。低生态位城市应逐渐改变城乡土地二元结构,调整内部产业结构,实现经济的可持续发展。

The Interactive Mechanism of Urban Expansion and Economic Development in the Different Niche of Urban:A Case Study of Guangdong Province

The process of urbanization tends to have phases. Urban expansions on different land use scales or in different regions have different phases, and their interactive mechanisms with economic development are significantly different. In this paper, 21 cities at prefecture level or above in Guangdong Province are taking as the study cases. According to the changes of their niche values in 1995-2010, the 21 cities are divided into four grades. Selecting the built-up area expansion as the indicator of urban expansion, the GDPs of the secondary and tertiary industries as the indicators of economic development, Kuznets curve, Logistic model, cointegration and Granger causality tests and decoupling theory are used to analyze the relationship between urban expansion and economic development. Four methods are combined to study the relationship between urban expansion and economic development in cities of different grades from different perspectives. The results show that the assumption of the relationship between urban expansion and economic development should be fully market-oriented, and various methods and multiple perspectives are necessary. Using the urban niche can properly distinguish the levels of the relationships between urban expansion and the economic development. The relationships between urban expansion and economic development in cities with different niches present different mechanisms. The relationships between urban expansion and economic development in most high niche cities meet Kuznets curve which can be fitted with a Logistic model, and there exists a long-term balance between urban expansion and economic development. Most high niche cities are in weak decoupling state. High niche cities occupy larger spaces and more resources, having higher levels of market, so the urban expansion has a closely relation to economic development. The relationships between urban expansion and economic development in most low niche cities do not meet Kuznets curve, however that in a few cities can be fitted with a Logistic model, and the long-term balance between urban expansion and economic development is not significant. Most low niche cities are in strong decoupling state. Low niche cities occupy small spaces and less resources, having lower levels of the market, so the relationship between urban expansion and economic development are not obvious although there is certain relationship. Currently, the sizes of most cities are close to the upper limit. High niche cities should take advantage of their management and techniques to constantly improve the resource efficiency and intensive level, so as to promote sustainable economic development. Low niche cities should gradually change the binary structure of urban and rural land and adjust the industrial structure to achieve sustainable economic development.