基于供给—消耗关系的蒙古高原草地承载力时空变化分析

在全球气候变化与人类活动加剧的双重影响下,蒙古高原草地放牧超载与草地退化问题不断凸显。如何从畜牧业生产对草地利用强度角度揭示草地生态系统的人地关系,对草地资源可持续利用对策研究至关重要。基于生态系统供给与消耗平衡关系,利用卫星遥感数据与畜牧业统计数据,分析蒙古高原草地生态系统的生态承载状态,研究不同政策背景和资源禀赋条件下草地生态系统承载压力的区域差异特征。研究结果表明：（1）内蒙古自治区和蒙古国两地不同的政策和习俗深刻影响了牧民对草地的利用方式,使得两地畜牧业生产结构产生显著差异,内蒙古自治区牲畜类型组成区域差异性大、总量相对平稳,而蒙古国牲畜数量增加显著、牲畜类型组成区域分布更为均匀。（2）内蒙古自治区和蒙古国草地消耗量均呈现出明显的上升趋势,蒙古高原草地资源消耗总量在2014年超出了供给量,其中内蒙古自治区草地资源消耗量在2005年超出了供给量,而近年来蒙古国的草地资源消耗量也逐渐逼近供给量。（3）2000-2016年间,蒙古高原草地承载压力不断增大,整体从盈余状态变为临界超载状态,持续严重超载地区主要出现在荒漠草原地区,并逐渐向典型草原及农牧交错区推进;蒙古国自2003年起富富有余状态区逐步减少且严重超载区逐步增多,内蒙古自治区则受生态保护政策的影响呈波动性变化。通过定量分析内蒙古自治区和蒙古国草地承载状况的时空差异性,所揭示出的不同社会经济背景下畜牧业生产结构与强度的变化规律可为草地资源管理提供科学依据。

Spatio-temporal analysis of grassland carrying capacity in Mongolian Plateau based on supply-consumption relationship

Under the influence of global climate change and human activities, the problems of grassland grazing overload and grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau have become increasingly prominent. How to reveal the human-land relationship of grassland ecosystem from the perspective of the intensity of animal husbandry production to grassland utilization is very important for the sustainable utilization of grassland resources. Based on the balance relationship between supply and consumption of grassland ecosystem, using satellite remote sensing data and livestock statistics, the ecological carrying status of grassland ecosystem in Mongolian Plateau was analyzed, and the regional differences of carrying pressure of grassland ecosystem under different policy backgrounds and resource endowments were studied. The results show that: (1) Different policies and customs in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia of China profoundly affect the way herdsmen use the grassland, which caused significant differences in the livestock production structure of the two areas. The composition of livestock types in Inner Mongolia of China has great regional differences and the total amount is relatively stable, while the number of livestock in Mongolia has increased significantly, and the composition of livestock types is more uniform in the region. (2) The consumption of grassland resources in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia of China showed an obvious upward trend. The total consumption of grassland resources in the Mongolian Plateau exceeded its supply in 2014. Specifically, consumption of grassland resources in Inner Mongolia of China exceeded its supply in 2005, and the consumption of grassland resources in Mongolia has gradually approached the supply in recent years. (3) From 2000 to 2016, the carrying pressure of grassland in Mongolian Plateau has been increasing, and the overall situation has changed from surplus state to critical overload state. Continuous serious overload areas mainly occur in desert grassland areas, and gradually advance to typical grassland and agro-pastoral ecotone. Since 2003, Mongolia's rich and surplus areas have gradually decreased and the serious overload areas have gradually increased, while the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has been fluctuating under the influence of ecological protection policies. The spatial and temporal differences of grassland carrying capacity in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia of China were quantitatively analyzed. The changes of livestock structure and intensity under different social and economic backgrounds could provide scientific basis for grassland resource management.