土地发展非均衡度测算及其敏感性分析——基于农地非农发展受限视角

论文以农地非农发展受限为研究对象,分别基于用地结构和土地财事权视角构建土地发展非均衡度模型,并在此基础上依据二者对经济发展的贡献度确定权重,进行加权求和,求算土地综合非均衡度。基于我国2009—2013年省级面板数据的实证研究结果表明：总体上,我国的土地发展非均衡度较高,但逐年下降;省级层面上,我国土地发展非均衡度的空间差异显著,且非均衡度呈“东部沿海发达地区—中部地区—西南地区或东北、西北地区”逐级递增趋势。此外,论文就土地发展非均衡度对财政转移支付的敏感性进行分析,为我国财政转移制度改革奠定理论依据。结果表明,财政转移制度有助于减缓土地发展非均衡度,且四大分区的土地发展非均衡度对财政转移支付的敏感性存在显著差异。研究尝试直接量化土地发展非均衡程度,为缓解土地非均衡发展、均衡区域发展奠定理论基础。

Measurement and Sensitivity Analysis of Unbalance Degree of Land Development: From the Perspective of Farmland Development Restriction

With the unbalanced development opportunities of farmland as research object, we constructed model to measure unbalanced land development from the perspective of land structure and financial rights and responsibility of land respectively. After giving weights to the two aspects based on their contribution to the unbalance degree of economic development, we calculated the comprehensive unbalance degree of land development with method of weighted summation. Then, by employing provincial panel data in China during 2009-2013, an empirical analysis was made to explore the spatial and temporal differences of the unbalance degree of land development. The results showed that the overall unbalance degree of land development in China was high, which was 1.156, but it decreased year by year, from 1.235 in 2009 to 1.083 in 2013 with average annual decrease rate of 3.07%; at provincial level, the regional difference of the unbalance degree was significant, and the unbalance degree showed growth trend from the eastern coastal developed regions to central regions, and then to southwest, northeast and northwest regions. Among which, Shanghai got the lowest unbalance degree of land development which was only 0.178, while Heilongjiang got the highest unbalance degree of up to 3.148. Besides, we analyzed the sensitivity of unbalance degree to fiscal transfer payment, so as to provide a theoretical basis for reform of fiscal transfer payment. The results show that fiscal transfer payment system helps decrease the unbalance degree of land development, and the sensitivities of unbalanced degree to fiscal transfer payment were different significantly in different areas. The study attempts to quantify the unbalance degree of land development, which may lay a theoretical foundation for relieving the unbalanced land development and balancing the regional development.