新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整及其大气环境效应研究

论文利用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法、LMDI分解模型、历史值外推模拟及线性规划约束模型等探究了新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整的影响及其大气环境效应,得到以下结论：1）2001—2013年,山东省工业比重呈现先上升后下降的趋势,污染密集型行业比重整体呈现先下降后上升的趋势,二者的环境规制强度基本呈上升趋势;2）环境规制对山东省工业比重、污染密集型行业比重和高新技术产业比重的影响系数分别为-0.043、-0.451和0.523,说明山东省环境规制的实施对工业结构的优化调整具有正向作用;3）随着山东省环境规制强度的增加,工业结构效应和技术效率效应抑制了大气污染物排放量的增加,而污染密集型行业结构效应虽然是工业结构减排的主要原因,但其减排绝对量较小;4）对比宽松、适度、严格3种环境规制情景下的预测结果,新常态下山东省工业结构的调整力度和大气污染物减排潜力依次增大。值得指出的是,适度环境规制下山东省工业结构调整更有利于经济社会的可持续发展。

The Action of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Structure Adjustment and Atmospheric Environment Effect under the New Normal in Shandong Province

Environmental regulation is the important means to promote industrial structure adjustment and improve the ecological environment. As a big province of heavy industries, Shandong Province was faced with triple pressure of “structure adjustment, steady growth, environmental protection” in the process of industrial structure adjustment under the new normal. This paper explored the influence of environmental regulation on industrial structure adjustment and atmospheric environment effects in Shandong Province under the new normal by using dynamic panel system GMM estimation method, LMDI decomposition model, historical value constraint extrapolation simulation and linear programming model. The conclusions were as follows. Firstly, the proportion of industries in Shandong Province increased at first and then decreased, and the proportion of pollution intensive industries decreased at first and increased subsequently from 2001 to 2013 in Shandong Province. The environmental regulation intensities of both were on the rise. Secondly, the influence coefficients of environmental regulation on the proportions of industries, pollution intensive industries and new and high technology industries were respectively -0.043, -0.451 and 0.523 in Shandong Province. This showed that the implementation of the environmental regulation had positive effects on the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial internal structure in Shandong Province. Thirdly, with the increasing of environmental regulation intensity, the industrial structure effect and the technical efficiency effect restrained the air pollutant emissions. The structure effect of pollution intensive industries was the main reason of the emissions reduction, but the absolute reductions resulting from it was little. Fourthly, comparing the predicted results in different scenarios, the potentials of industrial structure adjustment and air pollutants emission reduction in Shandong Province under the new normal increased in the order of easing environmental regulation, appropriate environmental regulation and strict environmental regulation. It is important to note that industrial structure adjustment of Shandong Province is more advantageous to the sustainable development of social economy under appropriate environmental regulation. The research will provide certain reference and guidance for the formulation of the industrial policy and environmental policy in Shandong Province.