中国-东盟自由贸易区粮食生产与贸易的时空格局演变

东南亚既是中国-东盟自由贸易区的重要组成部分,也是21世纪海上丝绸之路的前沿阵地和重要枢纽。20世纪90年代特别是中国-东盟自由贸易区（简称“自贸区”）成立以来,中国与东盟及其成员国的经贸联系日益加强。研究全球最大粮食消费国、进口国以及世界稻米最重要主产区和出口区之间的粮食生产和贸易发展态势,对中国实施“走出去”和“引进来”战略、建设21世纪海上丝绸之路以及改善地缘安全环境具有重要现实意义。论文基于FAO数据库中国-东盟各成员国1961-2013年粮食生产与贸易数据,利用集中化指数与回归分析法,定量揭示中国-东盟粮食生产与贸易的时空格局及演变特征。研究表明：1）从粮食生产来看,50多年来自贸区粮食总产增长4.06倍,至2013年底总产达到8.09×10⁸ t;就粮食贸易而言,1961-2013年自贸区贸易量增长3.19倍,其中粮食进口量年均增长率为2.95%,粮食出口量增长2.40倍,粮食进口总体大于粮食出口,受中国粮食进出口战略调整的影响,自贸区各个子区粮食贸易日趋均匀化。2）从空间格局来看,自贸区主要粮食生产国集中在中国、印度尼西亚、泰国和越南,其中中国的玉米、水稻比重占明显优势;中国的粮食贸易逆差进一步扩大,其贸易重心开始转向东南亚。3）自贸区的粮食生产与粮食进出口量关系密切,具有显著相关性,但国别差异明显。其中,中国粮食出口量受国内粮食生产与需求影响较大,是自贸区粮食贸易变动的晴雨表。

Spatio-temporal Pattern Changes of Cereal Production and Trade in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

Southeast Asia is not only the important part of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Area (CAFTA), but also the foremost frontier and transportation junction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Since the 1990s, especially after the establishment of the CAFTA in 2010, the economic and trade exchanges in the CAFTA have been enhanced extensively and deeply. The investigations on the statuses of cereal production in China, the largest food consuming and importing country, and in the most important rice producing and exporting regions in the world, and the trade between them, are of great significance to implement the national strategies of “Going Out” and “Bringing In”, develop the Maritime Silk Road, and improve the geo-security environment. With the annual cereal production and trade statistics of China and the ASEAN countries during 1961-2013 from the FAOSTAT, the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of cereal production and trade at country and sub-regional scales were analyzed by means of the concentration index and regression analysis methods. The results showed that: 1) With respect to cereal production, the total cereal production increased 4.06 times in the ASEAN during 1961-2013 at an annual growth rate of 3.10%, about 8.09×10⁸ t in 2013. The cereal trade increased 3.19 times in the ASEAN during 1961-2013 at an average annual growth rate of 2.79%. The import of cereal grew at an average annual rate of 3.05% while the total export of the cereals increased 2.40 times during this period. The import quantities of cereal outnumbered those of the export was mostly caused by the adjustment of import and export in China. However, the cereal’ import and export in other countries of the CAFTA were increasingly balanced. 2) Spatially, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam were the major grain producing countries, dominated by maize and rice crops. The trade deficit of cereals in China was increasingly enlarged and the trade center gradually moved to Southeast Asia. 3) The relationship between cereal production and trade (import and export) in China and the ASEAN was intensive, and the cereal trade was greatly influenced by cereal grain production. However, there existed much difference at country level. Among them, China’s cereals export is the barometer of cereals trade in the CAFTA.