2007—2015年中国农村居民点用地与农村人口时空耦合关系

系统研究中国农村居民点用地与农村人口的时空耦合关系,是优化农村土地资源配置的重要理论基础。论文利用人口统计数据与土地调查数据,基于弹性系数模型,分析了我国农村居民点用地面积与农村人口数量的时序变化特征、空间分异规律和耦合关系类型,研究主要结果如下：1）2007—2015年,全国农村居民点用地以1.94%的年均增长率快速增长,8 a间共增加257.27万hm²;2）我国农村常住人口人均居民点用地面积和农业户籍人口人均居民点用地面积分别以年均4.61%和1.98%的速度增长,两者差距以年均16.2%的速度逐年拉大;3）农村居民点用地面积与农村常住人口数量耦合类型在全国尺度上为G类（用地面积增加,人口数量减少,且前者增长率小于后者）失调发展类型,在省域尺度上都是失调发展类型,主要是G类和H类（用地面积增加,人口数量减少,且前者增长率大于后者）失调类型。农村居民点用地面积与农业户籍人口数量的耦合类型在全国尺度上为H类失调发展类型,全国93.55%的省份为失调发展类型,失调类型以A类（用地面积增加,人口数量增加,且前者增长率大于后者）和H类为主。研究结果表明：2007—2015年间,中国农村居民点用地面积与农村人口数量耦合关系呈现失调发展态势,并具有明显的空间异质性特征。论文研究结果可以为优化农村土地资源配置、促进农村人地关系协调发展提供科学依据。

Coupling Analysis of Rural Residential Land and Rural Population in China during 2007-2015

The spatial and temporal coupling relationship between rural residential land and population is the theoretical base for optimizing rural land resources. This paper aims to analyze the sequential variation characteristics, spatial heterogeneity rules and coupling relationship types of Chinese rural land resource and population. Demographic data and land survey data are analyzed with elastic coefficient model. The main research results include: 1) During 2007-2015, rural residential land linearly increased at an average annual rate of 1.94%, and totally increased 257.27×10⁴ hm². 2) Per capita residential land area of rural population and agriculture population increased at an average annual rate of 4.61% and 1.98%, respectively, and the gap between them was widen at an average annual rate of 16.2%. 3) The coupling relationship between rural residential land and rural population was type G (land area increase, population decrease and the former grows less rapidly than the latter) unbalanced development at national scale, and was type G or type H (land area increase, population decrease and the former grows faster than the latter) unbalanced development in all provinces. The coupling relationship between rural residential land and agriculture population was type H unbalanced development at national scale, and was unbalanced in 93.55% provinces. The research results indicated that the coupling relationship between rural residential land and rural population was unbalanced development in China during 2007-2015. This research could provide scientific supports for optimizing rural land resources and promoting coordinated development of rural man-land relationship.