新农保能促进农户土地流转吗?——基于CHARLS三期面板数据

基于2011年、2013年和2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据库,构建了三期具备农村户口且拥有耕地的微观农户 面板数据,采用固定效应模型实证分析我国农村老龄化问题背景下新农保能否促进农户土地流转。研究发现：（1）2015年中国耕地的平均转出率和转入率仅为14%和6%,2011-2015年中国耕地呈现转出率逐年递增、转入率逐年递减的趋势,凸显中国耕地出现集聚现象。（2）中国土地流转行为区域差异性明显,耕地转出率顺序为：东北地区>东部地区>中部地区>西北地区>西南地区;耕地转入率除西北地区较高外（2015年为9%）,其余各区均在5%左右。（3）新型农村社会养老保险能够促进60岁以上老年农户的耕地转出。政策启示是：提高农村养老保险水平以弱化土地的养老保障功能,进而促进农村土地流转;完善耕地集聚化背景下的土地管理制度,培育一批具有带头作用的新型农民;发展区域差异化的农村耕地管理政策,首先重点针对土地流转潜力大的地区推行土地流转交易。

Could the new rural social pension insurance promote farmers' land transfer:Based on three waves panel data of CHARLS

This paper aims to determine whether the new rural social pension insurance could promote farmland transfer or not based on the China Health and Pension Tracking Survey (CHARLS) database. Fixed-effect model was established by using three waves panel data of households information. The results indicate that the averaged rent out rate and rent in rate of farmland in China was only 14% and 6% (2015), respectively. The rent out rate of farmland increased and the rent in rate decreased, which highlights the phenomenon of farmland centralization in China. There is a wide disparity among regional land transfer in China. The order of rent out in farmland is: Northeast China, Eastern China, Central China, Northwest China, and Southwest China. The rent out rate of farmland is relatively high in the northwest region (9% in 2015) than other regions, of which the rent out rate is about 5%. The new rural social pension insurance plays a significant role in promoting the rent out of farmer over 60 years old. Policy implications can be drawn from the results. Firstly, the rural insurance should be improved to weaken the security function of land, thereby promoting rural land transfer. Secondly, the farmland management system should be reformed in the context of farmland centralization and designed to cultivate a group of new type of farmers. Thirdly, the regionally differentiated farmland management policies should be developed, so as to promote the implementation of land transfer trading platform for the region with more land transfer potential.