生态技术评价方法与模型研究——理论模型设计

针对生态技术研究缺乏科学系统的评价方法和模型,在对常用的评价方法和模型分析的基础上,提出“三阶段评价法”,设计了生态技术评价的理论模型。通过设置虚拟变量、Lasso指标选择和数据纠偏处理等方法,分别解决评价过程中出现的属性指标数字化、指标信息重叠和数据不平衡等问题,在此基础上建立生态技术评价的回归模型。这对减少人为主观因素的干扰、客观评价生态技术具有重要意义,为生态技术评价提供思路、方法和参考。

Research on Evaluation Method and Model of Ecological Technology: The Design of Theoretical Model

Ecological technology plays an important role in mitigating the process of ecosystem degradation. However, the research of ecological technology lacks scientific and systematic evaluation method and model. After summarizing the methods and models which can be used for the evaluation of ecological technology, the paper put forward the “three stage evaluation method” based on ecological technology itself, its application effect, and its coupling relationship with the benefit, which are qualitative evaluation method, semi quantitative evaluation method, and quantitative evaluation method. With the continuous deepening of the understanding of a certain ecological technology and the continuous enrichment of data collection, the “three stage evaluation method” could be used to evaluate the ecological technology from the coarse to the fine, from qualitative to quantitative. At different cognitive stages of ecological technology, the theoretical model of ecological technology evaluation with different scenarios was established by regression analysis. One regression model was established at the stage of “qualitative evaluation”; seven regression models were established at the stage of “semi quantitative evaluation”; ninety-five regression models were established at the stage of “quantitative evaluation”. By establishing regression models in different situations, each stage reveals the relationship of the ecological technology elements is different index systems, realizes the thought of modular evaluation, and then obtains the comprehensive value of ecological technology evaluation. Three main problems of evaluation model were pointed out: attribute data digitization, overlap of index information and data imbalance. It was suggested that the regression model of ecological technology evaluation should be established on the basis of comprehensive consideration of setting the dummy variable, Lasso variable selection and data balance. The regression analysis evaluation model established in this study is based on existing ecological technology evaluation database and the experience of expert evaluation and is an objective evaluation model. The model could reduce the interference of subjective factors and make an objective evaluation on the ecological technology. The evaluation method and model of ecological technology established in this study could not only evaluate the existing ecological technologies, but also evaluate the innovative use of new technologies or existing technologies, so as to provide scientific basis for “bringing in” and “going out” of the ecological technologies all over the world.