新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构

粮食安全是保证任何人在任何时候都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食物。新时期（2015-2050年）我国国内农业资源开发潜力已接近极限,中国粮食安全的总体思路正在面临重构。粮食安全在个人层面是营养安全,在国家层面是国家粮食的可获得能力,国家粮食可获得能力包括粮食生产能力和粮食进口能力,论文从个人营养安全和国家粮食可获得能力视角,对新时期我国粮食供需平衡进行分析,结果表明,在维持现有粮食生产能力的情况下,我国粮食安全保障程度为110.88%~117.49%,粮食具有保障平衡的基本能力,口粮安全保障程度为158.57%~168.02%,口粮具有保障充分平衡的能力,而饲料粮的保障程度只有79.41%~84.15%,保障程度不足。这一有所宽裕的粮食供需平衡态势为允许小幅度市场波动来实现粮食供需动态平衡提供了弹性空间,也为国家粮食政策调整提供了契机和条件。为建立我国新时期粮食安全保障体系,确保粮食供求基本平衡,建议：1）在资源端建立基本农田制度,维持粮食可持续生产能力;2）在生产端逐步发展经营规模较大的专业化粮食生产实体;3）在流通环节充分利用现代网络技术和电子商务模式,培育全国性和区域性现代粮食市场体系,融入国际市场,确保国家粮食安全的有效供应;4）在储备环节完善粮食储备体系,调整粮食储备的结构和规模。

The Balance between Grain Supply and Demand and the Reconstruction of China’s Food Security Strategy in the New Period

Food security ensures anybody can get enough food for survival and health at any time. During 2015-2050, the potential of domestic agricultural resources is close to the limit, and the overall plan of China’s food security need change. Food security means nutrition security at the individual level and the food availability, including food production and food imports, at the national level. The paper analyzed the balance between grain supply and demand during 2015-2050 in context of personal nutrition security and national food availability in China. The results of analysis showed that, in case of maintaining the existing grain production capacity, the total grain security degree is 110.88%-117.49%, the food grain security degree reaches 158.57%-168.02%, and the feed grain security degree is 79.41%-84.15%. This situation provides a tolerance space to achieve dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand of grain in grain market, also an opportunity for national food policy adjustment. In order to establish food security system in the new period to ensure the general balance of supply and demand of grain in China, the paper suggests: 1) to make regulations of basic farmland to maintain sustainable grain production capacity at the resources side; 2) to gradually develop larger professional grain production entities at the production side; 3) to make full use of modern network technology and electronic business model to develop modern national and regional as well as international market system of grain; and 4) to adjust the structure and size of grain reserves.