基于物质流分析的中国减物质化趋势及循环经济成效评价

物质流分析通过测量经济活动物质投入的数量、强度及其变化即物质化或减物质化趋势,能够反映可耗竭自然资源损耗和环境退化的总体情况,也是评价循环经济发展成效尤其是资源综合利用对物质消耗影响的一个有效工具。论文运用统计学和计量经济学方法,分析了中国2000-2013年直接物质投入及其与特定经济特征的关系,确定了资源利用强度变化趋势,评价了中国循环经济实践尤其是资源综合利用的成效。发现2000-2013年中国直接物质投入总量持续增加、单位GDP直接物质投入先上升后下降,说明中国已进入了相对的减物质化阶段;第二产业比重先增加后下降的变化趋势是直接物质投入强度变化的格兰杰原因;中国的资源综合利用总量增加但综合利用率仍很低,未对直接物质投入强度产生统计学意义上的显著影响;未来中国直接物质投入总量和人均值在很长时间内还将继续增加。

An Assessment of Dematerialization and Effects of Circular Economy Based on Material Flows Analysis

Material flow analysis is a physical measurement tool to assess economy and the environment. By measuring the quantity, intensity and changing trend of material flows, the materialization or dematerialization trend of economy can be identified and the general state of resource depletion and environmental degradation and the impacts of the adoption of circular economy in China can be assessed. Employing both statistical and econometrics methods, this paper tries to analyze the direct material input (DMI) between the year 2000 and 2014 and its relationship with certain economic features, assess DMI intensity and its changing trend and identify the impacts of resource recycling and reuse in China. This paper finds that, in the past 14 years, total DMI has been steadily increasing while DMI intensity in terms of GDP increased before it decreased, suggesting that China has begun the process of relative dematerialization since 2004. The ratio of secondary sector of economy is identified to have Granger caused the factor of DMI intensity, as when the ratio rises the DMI intensity rises, and vise versa. With the development of circular economy in China, the total waste material recycled and reused has increased 1.76 times to 1.863 billion tons, but the ratio to total DMI has been very low and has no statistically significant impacts on DMI intensity; and the per capita intensity and total DMI will continue to rise in the foreseeable future.