中国中东部雾霾污染与入境旅游的时空动态关联分析

以雾霾污染和入境旅游发展的典型区中国中东部为例,借助格兰杰因果检验、脉冲函数、重心模型及双变量空间自相关等方法,实证了1998-2016年雾霾污染与城市入境旅游的时空动态关联。结果表明:时间层面,雾霾污染与入境旅游之间存在长期均衡,雾霾污染是入境旅游的单向格兰杰原因,在短期内会对入境旅游的稳健性产生显著负向冲击,但从长期来看这种冲击趋于缓和;空间层面,雾霾污染和入境旅游重心分别向东北和西北偏移,研究期间两者空间重叠性虽有所提升,但仍存在明显的空间错位;整体上两者呈显著空间负相关,局部空间关联模式以高—低和低—高集聚为主,雾霾对豫东、徽北和鄂中等地的入境旅游市场影响最为突出,且具有空间依赖性。本研究可为区域入境旅游业合理应对雾霾天气,以实现高质量发展提供参考。

The spatiotemporal dynamic correlation analysis of haze pollution and inbound tourism in central and eastern China

In recent years, the haze weather has caused a negative impact on inbound tourism industry, which cannot be ignored. However, the temporal and spatial relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism and their interaction remain to be discussed. Taking 174 prefecture-level cities in central and eastern China where haze pollution and the development of inbound tourism are typical as an example, this study explored the spatiotemporal dynamic correlation characteristics of haze pollution and inbound tourism from 1998 to 2016 using the methods of Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, Center of Gravity Model and bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) Model. The results show that: at the temporal level, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism, and the haze pollution is in the Granger causality with the inbound tourism growth. Although the development of inbound tourism is highly dependent on its own structure, haze pollution still has a significant impact on the stability of inbound tourism growth in a short term, with the impact tending to ease from a long-term perspective. At the spatial level, the centers of gravity of haze pollution and inbound tourism tend to shift to the northeast and northwest, respectively. Although the space-overlaps improved slightly during the study period, there were still obvious spatial dislocations between the centers of haze pollution and inbound tourism. On the whole, both haze pollution and inbound tourism growth in central and eastern China have significantly negative spatial autocorrelation with an increasing trend. The bivariate local spatial correlation patterns are dominated by the High-Low and Low-High agglomeration types among cities. The areas where haze pollution curbs the inbound tourism growth seriously are mainly located in eastern Henan, northern Anhui and central Hubei, showing a certain spatial dependence. This study contributes to the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism demand on the scale of prefecture-level cities. The findings have implications for local governments and departments related to regional inbound tourism industry to properly cope with the haze weather so as to achieve high-quality development.