西藏粮食安全状况及主要粮食供需关系研究

西藏粮食安全事关当地的长治久安以及社会经济的可持续发展。论文基于2010年农户层面的食物消费调研数据,并且结合粮食市场调研、粮食加工企业调研以及政府部门调研数据等,在研究西藏粮食生产和消费基础之上,重点分析了西藏主要粮食（青稞、小麦和水稻）供应和需求之间的关系。结果显示,全区粮食供应数量较高,特别是外地调入粮食供给能力不断增强,提高了西藏粮食安全保障程度。2010年全区主要粮食生产为85.09万t,而家庭层面主要粮食消费为88.81万t,粮食生产和消费基本持平;但是考虑到本地粮食消费比重为60.8%,2010年本地粮食消费只有54.0万t。从整个西藏地区来看,虽然西藏地区粮食供应已经大于其需求（西藏地区三大粮食作物总供应146.3万t,而总需求超过95.9万t,供应为需求的1.5倍）,但是从不同地区来看,区域之间的粮食供需差别非常大,尤其是藏北牧区（主要是那曲地区）,粮食缺口比较大,未来需要加强藏北地区粮食的供给力度,提升其粮食安全的保障能力。随着内地粮食进藏数量和种类不断增加,未来需要进一步转变粮食购销体制系统,把粮食生产者（即农民）考虑在粮食流通市场之内,进一步加强和重视西藏粮食生产者在粮食流通中所发挥的作用,从而增加西藏农村地区家庭中余粮流通,增加青稞特色产业发展,提高农民收入。

Food Security Situation and Major Grain Supply and Demand in Tibetan Region

Food security is related to the lasting stability and the sustainable development of social economy in Tibet. Based on data from household food survey and data from food market, food processing enterprises and government departments, we investigated grain production and consumption (highland barley, wheat and paddy) in Tibet. An analysis of grain supply and demand in the year of 2010 was carried out. The result showed that there was a high grain supply in 2010, which indicated that there was a high grain security in Tibet. The total grain production in 2010 was 85.09 thousand tons, and the total amount of grain consumed by local population was 88.81 thousand tons, so there was roughly a balance between grain production and consumption. But when considering that 60.8% of the grain consumed was from local production, the actual of local grain consumption was 54.0 thousand tons, which indicated that the amount of local grain production was higher than local grain consumption. Although the grain supply has been greater than the demand in Tibet (the total grain supply from major grain crop was 146.3 thousand tons, and the total grain demand was 95.9 thousand tons, and the supply was 1.5 times of demand), there was large regional disparities, especially in north Tibet (for example Nagqu prefecture) where there was an large grain supply gap in Nagqu. It is needed to strengthen the food supply in that region and improve the food security. With the increasing number and variety of foods from other provinces, the Tibetan government should transform the food marketing system of Tibet to take food producers (farmers) into the grain circulation market, and further strengthen and emphasize the role they played in food market, and focus on highland barley industry to raise local farmers’ income.