我国主要粮食品种供给与消费平衡分析

论文基于城市和农村人口及其人均食物消费、粮食工业产品产量、肉蛋奶水产品产量、单位面积种子用量等估算了2013年我国主要粮食品种实际消费量和合理膳食结构下的理想消费量。研究结果显示：我国稻谷、玉米、小麦和薯类以国内生产为主,大豆主要依赖进口;我国稻谷和小麦以口粮消费为主,玉米和豆类以饲料用粮消费为主,薯类以工业用粮和饲料用粮消费为主;稻谷、小麦、玉米和薯类结余量较大,豆类结余量少;按照现有的饮食结构,只需要71%的稻谷生产量和52%的小麦生产量就能完全满足口粮需求。未来应关注稻谷和小麦口粮生产,实施全过程监管以及资金和技术支持,其他用途或品种的粮食生产应由市场主导。

The Balance between Supply and Consumption of the Main Types of Grain in China

Government has paid much attention to grain security, especially to grain production security. The grain subsidy has encouraged the farmers to produce more and more grain. In recent years, the grain occupation has been much more than the grain demand, which leads to great pressure on grain stock. The grain subsidy is unsustainable. It is necessary to calculate the grain consumption in order to determine the relationship between grain occupation and grain consumption and develop grain security system. In this study, we calculated the actually edible grain consumption based on the urban and rural population and the edible grain per capita, estimated the industrial grain consumption based on the outputs of grain industry products and the grain coefficient for each grain industrial product, computed the feed grain consumption based on the production of meat, beef, mutton, egg, milk and aquaculture products and the ratios of feed to meat, calculated the seed grain consumption based on the seeding area and the seed consumption per hectare, and estimated the grain loss as 5% of the grain production. The ideal edible and feed grain consumption in balanced diet was calculated based on “Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2016)” with urban and rural population and their edible grain per capita. The total ideal grain consumption in balanced diet were obtained by combining the ideally edible and feed grain consumption, the actual industrial and seed grain consumption, and grain loss. The results indicated that: 1) In 2013, most of rice, wheat, maize and potato were supported domestically, while the soybean occupation mainly depended on imports. 2) Most of rice and wheat were consumed as edible grain. The consumptions of maize and soybean were mainly used for feed grain. Potato was mainly used in industrial production and feed. In balanced diet, the edible consumption of potato and soybean increased apparently. 3) The grain occupations were much higher than the consumptions, while the soybean occupation was close to soybean consumption. 4) The consumption of rice and wheat in productions were much more than as edible grain. Only 39% of current rice and wheat production could meet the edible grain consumption in balance diet and 59% of current rice production and 43% of current wheat production could meet the actually edible grain consumption. Considering the grain security index of 1.2, 71% of current rice production and 52% of current wheat production could meet the actually edible grain consumption. In the future, government should pay more attention to the edible grain production of rice and wheat, develop supervisory system and provide financial and technical support for production, transportation, storage and trading of rice and wheat. The rice and wheat in industrial product, feed and seed and other consumption should be regulated by market, supplemented by government guidance and technical support. Thus, it would be helpful for the sustainability of the grain production and consumption.