我国大宗农产品贸易格局及对外依存度研究——基于虚拟耕地资源的分析和评价

我国已成为农产品进口大国,而所有农产品中都隐含有一定的耕地资源,论文基于农产品虚拟耕地资源的分析和评价,系统研究了我国大宗农产品贸易格局及对外依存度。论文所涉及的大宗农产品及其制品主要是土地资源密集型产品,包括粮食、油料、木薯、植物油、棉花、糖、饲料粕类等7大类,24个具体品种,以2000-2016年分国别的贸易数据为基础,从消费者的角度对大宗农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量进行了分析和评价。研究结果显示,我国大宗农产品虚拟耕地资源净进口量由2000年的675×10⁴ hm²增加到2016年的5 928×10⁴ hm²,其中美国和巴西是中国农产品虚拟耕地进口量最大的国家,进口量分别由2000年的342×10⁴和146×10⁴ hm²,增加到2016年的2 101×10⁴和2 192×10⁴ hm²,占我国虚拟耕地进口总量比例超过70%;2016年农业耕地资源对外依存度达到30.5%,对巴西和美国的依存度分别为11.3%和10.8%。土地密集型农产品的大量进口,在一定程度上缓解了我国耕地资源紧张的压力,保证了粮食安全。

A Study on the Trade and External Dependence of Agricultural Products in China—Analysis and Evaluation Based on Virtual Land Resources

China has become a major importer of agricultural products. Arable land resource is implicit in agricultural products. This paper aims to study the pattern of agricultural products trade and external dependence based on the analysis of virtual land resources of agricultural products. The agricultural products discussed in this paper are mainly land resources intensive products, including seven categories (grain, oil, cassava,vegetable oil, cotton, sugar and feed meal), comprising of 24 specific varieties. This study analyzed and evaluated the virtual land resources from the consumer’s perspective based on the trade data from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that Chinese virtual land resources import has increased from 675×10⁴ hm² in 2000 to 5 928 ×10⁴ hm² in 2016. The USA and Brazil are the largest exporting country to China, the exported volume increased from 342×10⁴ and 146×10⁴ hm² to 2 101×10⁴ hm² and 2 192×10⁴ hm² respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total import of virtual arable land. The external dependence of agricultural land in China reached 30.5% in 2016, accordingly the dependence on Brazil and USA being 11.3% and 10.8%. The large quantities of land intensive agricultural products import alleviate the pressure of being short of arable land resource in our country to a certain extent, and ensure food security.