“一带一路”沿线国家粮食生产的时空格局分析

“一带一路”倡议是新时代下全球化发展的必然结果。粮食作为一种重要的战略资源,其生产对“一带一路”沿线国家乃至全球粮食安全意义重大。通过对沿线国家粮食生产数量、结构等方面的深入剖析,揭示了“一带一路”沿线国家近40年来粮食生产的时空格局。结果表明：（1）“一带一路”沿线国家是世界粮食的重要产区,粮食产量占全球比例50%~60%左右,1977-2016年粮食产量呈增长趋势,单产是其粮食总产增长的主要影响因素。1995-2016年人均粮食产量有所提高但国别差异显著,人粮关系逐步改善,区域粮食保障程度整体增强。（2）“一带一路”沿线国家粮食生产存在明显的地域差异,空间格局相对稳定,中国、印度、俄罗斯是其主要粮食生产国,东南亚和南亚国家的粮食产量普遍较高,阿拉伯半岛国家的粮食产量相对较低。（3）稻谷、小麦和玉米是“一带一路”沿线国家主要粮食作物,稻谷对粮食总产变化的贡献最大,1977-2016年玉米占比不断增加,三大作物区域分布特征明显。

An evaluation of the Belt and Road cereals production from a view of spatial-temporal patterns

The "Belt and Road" Initiative is the inevitable result of globalization in the new era. As an important strategic resource, food production research is of great significance to regional and global food security. By a quantitative analysis of cereals production, planting area, yield and planting structure, the spatial-temporal patterns and regional differences of countries along the "Belt and Road" were revealed based on time-series data of nearly 40 years. The results showed that: (1) The countries along the "Belt and Road" were important cereals production areas, and the production accounted for 50% to 60% of the world total. A constant growth trend of cereals production was showed during 1977-2016. Per capita cereals production has increased with much difference at country level during 1995-2016, which means the man-grain relationship has been gradually improved and the regional food security has increased. (2) There were obvious regional differences in cereals production in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the spatial pattern was relatively stable. China, India and Russia were high cereals production countries. Cereals production in countries in Southeast and South Asia was generally high, while that in the Arabian Peninsula was relatively low. (3) Rice, wheat and maize were major cereal crops in countries along the "Belt and Road", and rice contributed the most to the total production. The proportions of rice and wheat were relatively stable, but that of maize was increasing. Meanwhile, the regional distribution characteristics of the three major crops were also obvious.