中国粮食自给率研究——粮食、谷物和口粮自给率分析

由于统计口径与计算方法的不同,粮食自给率的计算结果往往差异较大,得出的中国粮食安全的结论也大相径庭,从而引起国内各界的广泛争议。为了准确分析当前中国的粮食安全情势,避免误判对相关决策造成误导,有必要对粮食的统计口径和自给率计算方法进行分析研究。本文选用三种粮食自给率计算方法—定额统计法、流向统计法和消费统计法,测算中国2000-2016年的粮食、谷物和口粮自给率,并对结果进行对比分析。结果显示：（1）定额统计法计算结果容易造成失真,流向统计法与消费统计法计算结果较为准确;（2）谷物和口粮自给率更能反映中国实际的粮食供需情况;（3）中国谷物自给率在98%以上,口粮自给率高于100%。然而,随着工业化和城市化进程的加快,城市发展对土地的需求越来越大,这会造成耕地被侵占、粮食需求激增等严重问题,口粮生产仍然不能放松,建议未来调整农业结构,稳定小麦、稻米生产。

Study on grain self-sufficiency rate in China: An analysis of grain,cereal grain and edible grain

Due to the difference of statistic standarda and calculation methods, the results of grain self-sufficiency rate were generally quite different and the assessment of the grain security situation in China varied greatly, which aroused great controversy. In order to accurately analyze the grain security situation of China to avoid misleading the relevant decisions, it is necessary to study the grain statistical data sources and the calculation methods of grain self-sufficiency rate. In this work, three commonly used methods, which were the stint counting method, the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method, were used to estimate and analyze the grain, cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rate in China during 2000-2016. The results were as follows: (1) The stint counting method would cause distortion in the results, while the results provided by the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method were more accurate. (2) The cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rates could report the actual grain supply demand relations. (3) The self-sufficiency rate of cereal grain was greater than 98%, and that of edible grain was greater than 100%. However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, city development demand for more land which would cause serious problems such as embezzlement of cultivated land and soaring grain demand, so grain production still should not be slackened in China. It is suggested that the agricultural structure should be adjusted in the future to stabilize the production of wheat and rice.