中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式

为了实现中国经济发展模式的转型,资源、环境与经济水平协调发展是社会经济可持续发展的根本途径之一。耦合度用来衡量两个或者两个以上系统相互作用和相互影响的协调发展程度,得到了广泛的应用。然而,在实证分析中,耦合度公式出现取值范围判断的错误。论文着重讨论并修正了耦合度公式出现的错误,并将之推广到n个系统。运用修正后的耦合度公式,建立经济发展-资源禀赋-生态环境综合评价指标体系,然后计算中国大陆31个省域单元2003—2014年三系统耦合度和协调度,最后进行空间分析。研究发现,在2003—2014年间,从总体来看,耦合度和协调度呈现逐年上升态势。从耦合度的时空演变来看,空间分布变化较小。31个省域单元耦合度具备明显的空间集聚现象。然而,协调度在空间上呈现随机分布。

Coupling and Coordinating Degrees of Provincial Economy,Resources and Environment in China

For the purpose of transition of economic development pattern, China’s social-economic sustainable development depends on the harmonious development of economy, resources and environment. Coupling and coordinating degrees are designed to measure the interaction and mutual influence of two or more systems. Coupling degree is highly explainable and operational. Hence, it has been widely used in recent years. However, in many empirical studies, coupling degree formula was usually not used correctly. As a consequence, the range of the coupling degree could not be in the interval [0, 1]. One aim of this paper is to discuss and revise the coupling degree formula. A revised coupling degree formula is obtained and extended to n systems. This paper uses the revised coupling degree formula to calculate the coupling and coordinating degrees of three systems of 31 provinces in mainland China after comprehensive evaluation of provincial economic development, resources endowment and eco-environment. Then, it highlights the spatial analysis of the coupling and coordinating degrees in 31 provinces. The main results are the following. During the period of 2003-2014, generally the coupling degree had an increasing trend. Similarly, the coordinating degree grew up over time. From the spatio-temporal perspective, there was little variation in spatial distribution of coupling degrees of 31 provinces. Moreover, there was significant evidence of spatial autocorrelation of provincial coupling degrees of 31 provinces while provincial coordinating degrees of 31 provinces showed random spatial distribution.