基于Bowtie模型的机场安全风险分析

运用Bowtie模型对隐患、可能的事故原因以及后果进行评判，分析重点放在风险控制和组织控制的薄弱环节上。利用Bowtie模型，分析机场安全风险，以跑道侵入事件为算例进行深入分析，探讨影响机场安全风险的组织因素。量化影响跑道侵入的结构重要度，计算不同阶段、不同条件下，可能导致跑道侵入事件发生的概率。从风险管理和组织安全的角度，预防跑道侵入事件的发生提供理论依据和实际指导。

Research on risk of airport based on Bowtie model

Hidden dangers, cause of the accident and consequences were evaluated by model of Bowtie which focus on unsubstantial stage of risk and organize control. Making Use of model of Bowtie, the airport safety risk was analyzed, in-depth analysis runway incursions as an example, discuss organization factors impacting airport safety were discussed. The structure important degree and the probability of taking place Runway incursions in the different stage and condition were calculated. From view of risk management and organization safety, it can provide theoretical basis and practical guidance with runway incursions.