Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland |
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Authors: | Daniele Torriani Pierluigi Calanca Markus Lips Helmut Ammann Martin Beniston Jürg Fuhrer |
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Institution: | (1) Air Pollution/Climate Group, Agroscope Research Station ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland;(2) Farm Management Group, Agroscope Research Station ART, 8356 Ettenhausen, Switzerland;(3) Climate Change and Climate Impacts, University of Geneva, 7 Route de Drize, 1227 Carouge, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | A simple model of yield was used along with climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on grain maize productivity
and associated economic risk in Switzerland. In a first application, changes in the precipitation regime alone were shown
to affect the distribution of yield considerably, with shifts not only in the mean but also in the standard deviation and
the skewness. Production risk was found to respond more markedly to changes in the long-term mean than in the inter-annual
variability of seasonal precipitation amounts. In a further application, yield projections were generated with respect to
a full climate scenario, with the emission pathway as specified in the IPCC A2 scenario. Anticipation of the sowing date was
found to reduce the negative impact of climate change on yield stability, but was not sufficient to ensure average productivity
levels comparable to those observed at present. We argued that this was caused by the reduction in the duration of the growing
season, which had a stronger impact than suggested by previous studies. Assuming no change in price relations, the results
also revealed a strong increase in production risk with climate change, with more than a doubling in the probability of yield
falling short of a critical threshold as compared to today’s situation. |
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Keywords: | Maize productivity Production risk Climate change Climate variability Parametric yield model |
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