鄱阳湖水生态安全现状评价与趋势研究

通过收集整理鄱阳湖社会经济、生态环境和水环境资料，运用PSR模型、层次分析法和综合指数法确定鄱阳湖现状年的水生态安全度并预测鄱阳湖水生态安全发展趋势。结果表明：城镇生活污水处理率、农业化肥施用量、万元GDP用水量、鄱阳湖水质、钉螺面积等指标对鄱阳湖水生态安全有较大影响；鄱阳湖现状（2005年）水生态安全度为0.513 3，属于“基本安全”；2010年鄱阳湖水生态安全度为0.565 1，较2005年有所提升，但仍属于“基本安全”的范畴；近期内，鄱阳湖水生态安全度将在“基本安全”的范畴内波动。随着湖区周边经济社会的发展，环境压力的不断加大，若维持现有的保护力度，则鄱阳湖水生态安全的变化趋势不容乐观。应对环境压力的响应措施不足，主动保护水生态系统的行为或意识较为欠缺，是导致鄱阳湖水生态安全等级不高的主要原因。

STUDY ON STATUS EVALUATION AND TREND OF WATER ECOSYSTEM SECURITY IN POYANG LAKE

In this paper,the grade of water ecosystem security in Poyang Lake was confirmed by analyzing social economical and water ecological information,using Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model,AHP and Composite index methods.Results showed that the indicators such as sanitary sewage processing rate,chemical fertilizer quantity,million GDP water consumption,water quality in Poyang Lake and Oncomelania acreage,etc,had considerable influence on water ecosystem in Poyang Lake.The water ecosystem security value in Poyang Lake in 2005 was 0.513 3,which meant "basically safe".And the value would be 0.565 1 in 2010 according to the prediction,higher than that in 2005 but still belonged to "basically safe".In the near future,the water ecosystem security value in Poyang Lake would fluctuate within "basically safe".With the social economical development of the lake surrounding area and the increasing environmental pressure,the changing trend of water ecosystem security in Poyang Lake would not be optimistic if the protection efforts are maintained at the present level.Lack of response measures to environmental pressure and deficiency of active awareness and action to protect water ecosystem are the main reasons that lead to the low security grade in Poyang Lake.