基于LMDI的中国二氧化硫排放区域变化的因素分解

运用LMDI方法将中国SO2排放变化分解为规模效应、区域经济结构效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产污系数效应和污染治理效应六个因素,并进行了东、中、西和东北四个地区的差异分解分析。结果表明：规模效应是造成各地区SO2排放增加的最重要原因,不同地区不同时段SO2排放的减排因素不同。1999―2003年间,东部、中部地区能源结构和产污系数的减排效应显著,西部、东北地区能源强度和产污系数效应突出;2003―2006年间,东中西部污染治理和产污系数减排效应明显,东北地区能源效率减排贡献大;2006―2009年间,东部、中部的污染治理和能源效率减排贡献突出,西部的产污系数效应和污染治理作用显著,东北的产污系数和能源强度效应突出。建议按照不同地区结合实际情况实行灵活的减排政策。

Decomposition analysis of regional SO_2 emissions in China based on LMDI method

Based on the LMDI method,the variations of regional SO2 emissions of China during 1999—2009 are decomposed into six factors： economic scale,regional economic composition,energy intensity,energy share,emission coefficient and pollution control measure.It was found that scale expansion is the most important factor driving the increase of SO2 emission in all regions,with temporal and spatial variances in terms of emission reduction factors.Between 1999 and 2003,the eastern and central regions mainly relied on the energy share and emission coefficient in order to reduce emissions.However in the same period,energy intensity and emission coefficient were more significant in the west and northeast.During 2003—2006,pollution control measure and emission coefficient were the main factors to reduce emission in the east,central and west,while energy intensity was most significant in the northeast.From 2006 to 2009,pollution control measure and energy intensity became the main factors for emission reduction in the east and central,with emission coefficient and pollution control measure in the west,and emission coefficient and energy intensity in the northeast,respectively.Flexible emission reduction policies are suggested in accordance with the actual situations of various regions in China.