广东省自然物候对气候变暖的响应

利用广东省气象观测网14个观测站点1982年以来自然物候观测资料和气温资料,对广东省近30年木本植物木棉、苦楝和动物蚱蝉物候在气候变暖过程中的变化进行分析。结果表明：近30年广东省木本植物、动物春季物候期明显提前,植物、动物春季物候期的提前与推迟对温度的上升与下降的响应是非线性的。木本植物春季物候期、动物春季物候期分别与2—3月平均温度、3—4月平均温度有明显的负相关。动物春季物候期与物候期间〉10℃有效积温也有明显的负相关。预估到2020年我省木本植物春季物候期、动物春季物候期将分别提前2.9、2.2 d。

Impacts of climate warming on phenophases in Guangdong

Based on the climate and phenological data of 14 stations in Guangdong Province in 1982--2010, impact of climate warming on the phenophases change and trends of woody plant including Bombax malabaricum, Melia azedarach L and animal of cicada（Cryptotympana atrata） were analyzed. The results show that spring phenophases of woody plant and animal in Guangdong have advanced for the past 30 years. Responses of spring phenophases to temperature changes are nonlinear. Statistically significant negative correlations were found between spring phenophases and the mean temperature of February - March and March - April, respectively. Spring phenophases were also negatively correlated with the effective accumulated temperature above 10 ~C o Based on projected data of climate model, it is estimated that spring phenophases will advance 2.9 d for woody plant and 2.2 d for animal by 2020.