中国湖泊富营养化影响因素研究——基于中国22个湖泊实证分析

基于1：25万河流水系和数字高程（DEM）数据制备了选取湖泊的流域边界，据其集成了流域社会经济数据，并据中国科学院资源环境数据中心提供的1990、1995、2000、2005年4个时段土地利用数据形成了流域反映人类活动强度的表征指标，选取了全国湖泊富营养化区域差异性调查课题获取的案例湖泊的水质数据，集成了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素计量分析的面板数据集，研究了1990-2005年间中国湖泊营养状态的发展趋势与差异特征，探讨了湖泊富营养化的自然气候与社会经济影响机制，构建了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素分析的计量模型，厘定了1990-2005年间影响湖泊营养状态变化的重要因素，测度了其对湖泊富营养化的影响方向和作用强度。基于面板数据的计量分析结果表明，近15年人类活动强度对湖泊营养状态呈显著的正影响，其表征指标人均GDP与建设用地所占流域面积比均具有较强的显著性，而在人类扰动较小的情况下，湖泊的营养状态与湖泊补给系数成正比，与湖泊蓄容量成反比，补给系数较小且其他因素也相同时，水体营养状态应与流域土壤本底值相关；以林、草地的面积比重所测度的流域自然生态系统发育程度与湖泊营养状态呈显著负相关关系，表明林地与草地生态系统对流域的氮、磷营养物的人湖量具有一定的削减作用，论文研究结果将为流域管理措施方案制订提供科技支撑。

Influencing factors of lake eutrophication in China——A case study in 22 lakes in China

This study analyzed the differences and development trend of nutritional status of lakes in China between 1990 and 2005 and explored the influencing mechanism of climate and socioeconomics on lake eutrophication. Based on the 1 ： 250 000 river sys- tems and digital elevation （DEM） data, the lake basin boundary was extracted, according to which the socio-economic data of wa- tershed was collected. Indices reflecting human activity intensity were generated with the land-use data of year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 provided by the data center of the resources and environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The lake water quality data of national eutrophication survey topics for the regional differences was used and the panel dataset of econometric analysis of the lake eutrophication in China was incorporated. The econometric model for influencing factors of lake eutrophication in China was con- structed, important influencing factors of lake eutrophication between 1990 and 2005 were identified and their influence on lake eutrophication was measured. The results of econometric analysis based on panel data indicated that there was significant positive influence of human activities on the lake＇s nutritional status in the past 15 years, both per capita GDP and percent of built-up land in total watershed area had significant influence. On condition of insignificant human disturbance, the nutritional status was positively related to lakes supply coefficient and negatively related to lake water storage capacity. On condition that the supply coefficient was small and other factors were the same, the nutritional status of lakes was related to the soil background value. The development de- gree of natural ecosystems in the watershed, which was measured with the area percentage of the forest and grassland, was signifi- cantly negatively related to the nutritional status of lakes, indicating that the forests and grassland played a certain role in reducing input of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients into the lake.