经济增长与农业碳排放关系的实证研究

研究首先基于农业投入与生产视角的6个主要方面碳源,测算了1993-2008年我国农业生产活动所导致的碳排放量,分析发现我国农业碳排放总量和强度分别年均增长率为4.08%、2.38%,但环比增速总体上处于阶段性下降态势。化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕等导致碳排放年均递增率分别为3.45%、4.65%、7.20%、4.77%、1.22%、0.38%。进一步综合运用协整理论及误差修正模型,实证我国经济增长与农业碳排放之间的关系。结果表明：我国经济增长与农业碳排放总强度,以及经济增长与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等5类碳源导致的碳排放强度之间存在协整关系,且人均GDP每增加1%,农业碳排放总强度与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等碳源的碳排放强度分别增加1.72%、1.61%、1.18%、0.40%、2.48%和1.31%。最后,据此提出相关政策建议。

Empirical study on relationship between economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions

Based on six kinds of main carbon source from the agricultural inputting and production,the thesis calculates China’s agricultural carbon emission load from 1993 to 2008.The average annual growth rate of agriculture carbon emissions is 4.08%,while the average annual growth rate of intensity is 2.38%,the chain growth of which was general in the stage of decline.Fertilizers,pesticides,diesel oil,irrigation,tillage,as a result of carbon emissions,average annual increase rate was 3.45%,4.65%,7.20%,4.77%,1.22%,0.38%.Futherly,the integrated use of co-order error correction model was discussed as an evidence of China＇s economic growth and agriculture carbon emissions.The results show that： for every 1% increase in per capita GDP,the total carbon intensity of agricultural fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural diesel,plowing and other carbon sources of carbon emission intensity increased by 1.72%,1.61%,1.18%,0.40%,2.48% and 1.31%.Finally,relevant policy recommendations were proposed accordingly.