安全防护对原油罐区多米诺火灾事故发生概率的影响

目前原油罐区的多米诺效应火灾风险分析中,未考虑罐区配备的各类安全防护。为在火灾风险分析的事故发生概率计算中考虑安全防护的性能,提出可用性和有效性两个概念对原油罐区的安全防护性能进行量化,采用事件树分析法确定考虑安全防护时的原油罐区多米诺火灾事故扩展概率。以2储罐罐区为例,浮顶全表面池火灾发生后,计算出考虑安全防护时罐区各储罐单元的池火灾事故扩展概率3.89×10^-2与未考虑安全防护时罐区各储罐单元的池火灾事故扩展概率7.46×10^-1相比,两者相差一个数量级;对于6储罐罐区,考虑安全防护与未考虑安全防护时罐区各储罐单元的池火灾事故发生概率相差将近4倍,表明安全防护在预防原油罐区多米诺火灾事故中起着重要作用。

The Influence of Safety Protection on the Probability of Domino Accident in Tank Area

At present,the domino effect fire risk analysis of the crude oil tank area does not consider the various types of safety protection provided in the tank area.In order to consider the performance of safety protection in the calculation of accident probability of risk analysis,this paper puts forward two concepts, availability and effectiveness, to quantify the safety protection of crude oil tank area,and uses event tree analysis method to determine the extension probability of domino fire accident in tank area considering safety protection.Taking two tank farms as examples,this paper calculates that the expansion probability of pool fire accidents is 3.89×10^-2 under the condition of safety protection and the expansion probability of pool fire accidents is 7.46×10^-1 under the condition of no safety protection after the occurrence of floating roof full surface pool fire.There is an order of magnitude difference between the two probabilities.The probability of pool fire is nearly 4 times of the probalility among the tank units with and without safety protection,which indicates that safety protection plays an important role in the prevention of domino fire accident in crude oil tank area.