Number of COVID-19 cases required in a population to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater in the province of Alberta, Canada: Sensitivity assessment |
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Affiliation: | 1. School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada;2. Department of Pediatrics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada;3. Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2B7, Canada;4. University of Alberta Central Receiving, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2R3, Canada;5. Provincial Laboratory for Public Health, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada;6. EPCOR, Edmonton, AB T5H 0E8, Canada;7. Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G3, Canada;8. Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, East Lismore NSW 2480, Australia |
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Abstract: | With a unique and large size of testing results of 1,842 samples collected from 12 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) for 14 months through from low to high prevalence of COVID-19, the sensitivity of RT-qPCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater that correspond to the communities was computed by using Probit analysis. This study determined the number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population required to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater at defined probabilities and provided an evidence-based framework of wastewater-based epidemiology surveillance (WBE). Input data were positive and negative test results of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples and the corresponding new COVID-19 case rates per 100,000 population served by each WWTP. The analyses determined that RT-qPCR-based SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection threshold at 50%, 80% and 99% probability required a median of 8 (range: 4-19), 18 (9-43), and 38 (17-97) of new COVID-19 cases /100,000, respectively. Namely, the positive detection rate at 50%, 80% and 99% probability were 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.04% averagely for new cases in the population. This study improves understanding of the performance of WBE SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection using the large datasets and prolonged study period. Estimated COVID-19 burden at a community level that would result in a positive detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is critical to support WBE application as a supplementary warning/monitoring system for COVID-19 prevention and control. |
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Keywords: | Corresponding author. SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 cases Wastewater Probit analysis Probability Detection sensitivity |
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