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Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies
Authors:Thomas M. Bonnicksen
Affiliation:(1) University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53706 Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Abstract:Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.
Keywords:Public participation  Decision making  Policy analysis  Resource policy  Cross-impact simulation  Multiresource management  Computer modeling  Expert systems  Knowledge engineering  Satisficing
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