北京市生活垃圾管理的多重不确定性长期规划模型

在对北京市生活垃圾产生、运输和处理系统研究的基础上,考虑垃圾管理系统中各种参数、约束条件等的不确定性,将区间参数、机会约束规划和整数规划相结合,建立了城市生活垃圾管理的不确定性机会约束混合整数规划模型,并以北京市为案例城市进行研究.结果表明,容量约束的违反概率越低,资源化程度越高,然而会造成较高的系统成本.根据北京市目前生活垃圾的处理现状及“十一五”规划目标设置了3种不同的政策发展情景:情景1以目前处理处置现状为依据,作为对比方案;情景2将提高垃圾运往堆肥厂和焚烧厂的转运量,提高资源化效率;情景3将达到“十一五”规划要求.优化结果表明,情景2和情景3能够分别延长垃圾填埋场的使用寿命5a和10a,但是会造成系统成本较高的代价.

A hybrid uncertainty programming for long-term planning of municipal solid waste in Beijing City

An interval-parameter chance-constraint mixed integer linear programming modeling was proposed based on the system analysis of the municipal solid waste management system of Beijing. The treatment facility expansions, waste flows and system costs resulting from confidence levels of constraints were analyzed. The optimal solution indicated that the increased violation level may lead to the high utilization rate, but may cause high system cost. Take the current waste management situation and the goal of “the Eleventh 5-year Planning” of Beijing into account, 3 different policy scenarios were predefined: scenario 1 was based on the current waste management situation; scenario 2 was assumed to reach higher diversion rates to composting and incinerating facilities; scenario 3 was pre-regulated according to “the Eleventh 5-year Planning” of Beijing. The optimization results demonstrated that scenario 2 and scenario 3 could prolong the landfills’ lifespan for 5 and 10 years, respectively, while it might lead to high system cost.