突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型

针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的专家群体之间的冲突问题,构建突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型。首先,根据冲突与一致性相对的关系,基于模糊逻辑理论提出一种应急决策冲突程度表示方法,定量表示应急决策冲突程度,确定冲突阈值;其次,结合应急决策冲突实际,提出冲突协调策略,设计冲突协调步骤;最后,将该模型应用于实际案例中,验证模型的合理性、可行性。研究表明:该模型能够全面反映应急决策专家的偏好,定量表示应急决策冲突程度,并具有协调消解决策者之间冲突的作用。

Conflict coordination model for emergency decision making in disaster accidents

For the sake of resolving conflicts in emergency decision making process of disaster accidents,a model of conflict coordination for decision-making was established. Firstly,according to the relationship between conflict and consistency,a representation method for conflict degree of emergency decision making was proposed based on the fuzzy logic theory,and the conflict threshold was determined. Then the conflict coordination strategies were proposed and the steps of conflict coordination were designed in combination with actual situation of conflict. Finally,the rationality and feasibility of the model were verified through an actual case. The study indicates that this model can fully reflect experts’ preferences in emergency decision making,quantify the degree of conflict,and could coordinate and eliminate the conflict among decision makers.