考虑多因素影响的避难场所服务范围划分方法

为增强城市防灾减灾能力,提高居民的避难成功率,减少灾时应急避难设施的不合理使用和资源浪费,针对当前避难场所划分范围重叠性高,划分结果不合理的问题,提出考虑多因素的避难场所服务范围划分方法。首先,通过考虑实际路网等多因素的影响,构建避难场所服务能力影响因素集和评价指标体系,包括可达性、救援均衡性、选择性和安全性等4个一级指标和16个二级指标;然后,基于实际路网,利用空间句法模型和ArcGIS空间网络分析工具计算统计避难场所各个指标的数据,进而通过灰色综合关联度模型计算避难场所服务能力的综合值;最后,使用加权Voronoi图的方法划分避难场所的服务范围,并以北京市海淀区避难场所为研究对象验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:相较于传统划分模型,该方法综合考虑了其他因素对服务范围的影响,能够合理地界定避难场所的服务范围。

Method for service scope division of emergency shelters considering multi-factors

In order to enhance the ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation,improve success rate of resident refuge,and reduce irrational use of emergency shelter facilities and waste of resources during a disaster,a model of service scope division was put forward which was aiming at problem of high overlap and unreasonable results in current division of shelters. Firstly,the influence of actual road network and other factors were taken into consideration,and the set of influencing factors and evaluation index system of service ability were constructed,including four first-level indicators: accessibility,rescue balance,selectivity and security,and 16 second-level indicators. Then based on actual road network,the space syntax model and spatial and network analysis tools of ArcGIS were used to calculate data of each indicator. And the comprehensive value of service ability was calculate by the gray comprehensive correlation model. Finally,weighted Voronoi diagram was used to divide service scope of emergency shelter,and the proposed method was applied to the emergency shelters in Haidian District of Beijing to verify its validity. The results show that compared with traditional partition model,the method considers influence of other factors on service scope and can reasonably define service scope of the shelter.