易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景分析

为探究易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景演变趋势,发掘事故后果类型预测方法,首先搜集、统计2013-2018年国内983起易燃易爆危化品道路运输事故数据,从中提取事故发展过程中各个环节的特征参数,并将其作为网络节点;然后借助Netica软件进行参数学习,并构建易燃易爆危化品道路运输事故情景分析贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,最后进行后验概率推理,提出"初发事故-危化品事故"模式的事故链预测方法。研究表明:该事故情景分析模型可有效评估各类因素对事故情景演化的影响程度,并预测事故情景演化态势和导致特定事故后果的最可能出现的情景。

Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals

In order to explore the evolution trend of accident scenarios,the Netica was used to study the accidents characteristic parameters extracted from 983 road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals from 2013 to 2018 in China. And a BN model for road transportation accident analysis of hazardous materials was constructed. Fianlly,posterior probability was studied and the model was adopt to develop a prediction method of fault chain in the form of " initial accident-hazardous chemicals accident". The results show that the scenario analysis model can effectively assess the impact of various factors on the evolution of accident scenarios,and that the evolution of accident scenarios and the most likely scenario leading to specific consequences can be predicted by the model.