高原山区公路环境下交通事故形态致因分析

为揭示高原山区公路环境下不同交通事故形态的致因,明确不同事故形态的关键影响因素及影响程度,利用采集的典型高原山区公路交通事故统计数据,基于事故形态视角构建Logistic模型,选取追尾、正面及刮擦3类事故形态为因变量,从道路交通环境、道路交通设施与车辆类型等方面选取7类影响因素为自变量,分析事故致因。结果表明:不同事故形态的致因存在明显差异性,标志标线设置是3类事故发生的保护因素,信号灯设置是正面碰撞事故发生的保护因素,追尾事故发生的危险因素是机非分隔带;对追尾事故影响最大的是大型客车,是其他车辆的5. 282倍;中型货车对正面碰撞的影响最大,是其他车辆的5倍,但对刮擦事故的影响最小;不利天气对追尾事故发生的影响是正常天气的3~4倍;夜间行车无路灯照明,发生追尾事故的概率为白天的1. 312倍。

Cause analysis of different patterns of traffic accidents on plateau mountain roads

In order to reveal the causes of different patterns of traffic accidents occurring on plateau mountain roads,and to clarify the key factors affecting different traffic accident patterns and their degree of influence,a Logistic model is constructed based on the statistical data collected from typical highway accidents in plateau mountainous areas. The causes were analyzed by using three traffic accident patterns as dependent variables,namely rear-end collision,head-on collision and scratch,and using seven types of affecting factors as independent variables from three perspectives of traffic environment,road facilities and vehicle types. The results show that there are obvious differences in the causes of different traffic accident patterns: the marking line setting is the protection factor for all of the three patterns,the signal setting is the protection factor for head-on collisions,while the risk factor for rear-end accidents is the motor andnon-motor separating belt;what affects most on the rear-end accident is the large passenger car,which is5. 282 times of other vehicles;the medium-sized truck has the greatest impact on the head-on collision,which is five times that of others,but it has the least impact on scratch accidents;the adverse weather affects the rear-end collision 3 to 4 times of normal weather and the probability of a rear-end collision is1. 312 times that of the daytime if there is no street lighting at night.